Recent National Weather Service model guidance highlights a persistent marine layer and moderate onshore flow that continues to moderate daytime heating in San Francisco, positioning the August 12 high most likely in the 68–71°F range and aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities around 70–71°F. This coastal pattern, typical for mid-August, features low stratus and fog that delay solar warming until afternoon, when temperatures often peak near the long-term average of 70°F. Ensemble runs show limited upside potential from stronger warming, while recent observations confirm highs remaining in the upper 60s amid sea-breeze reinforcement. Traders appear to weigh this established meteorological setup against the low historical frequency of exceeding 75°F in the city during similar marine-influenced periods.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 12?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 12?
70-71°F 43%
68-69°F 27%
72-73°F 21%
66-67°F 6%
NEW
$17,012 Vol.
NEW
$17,012 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
63°F or below
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
6%
68-69°F
27%
70-71°F
43%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 43%
68-69°F 27%
72-73°F 21%
66-67°F 6%
NEW
$17,012 Vol.
NEW
$17,012 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
63°F or below
$397 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$1,256 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$1,040 Vol.
6%
68-69°F
$2,907 Vol.
27%
70-71°F
$3,963 Vol.
43%
72-73°F
$1,255 Vol.
21%
74-75°F
$1,201 Vol.
4%
76-77°F
$2,289 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$1,937 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$381 Vol.
<1%
82°F or higher
$386 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model guidance highlights a persistent marine layer and moderate onshore flow that continues to moderate daytime heating in San Francisco, positioning the August 12 high most likely in the 68–71°F range and aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities around 70–71°F. This coastal pattern, typical for mid-August, features low stratus and fog that delay solar warming until afternoon, when temperatures often peak near the long-term average of 70°F. Ensemble runs show limited upside potential from stronger warming, while recent observations confirm highs remaining in the upper 60s amid sea-breeze reinforcement. Traders appear to weigh this established meteorological setup against the low historical frequency of exceeding 75°F in the city during similar marine-influenced periods.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$17,012End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model guidance highlights a persistent marine layer and moderate onshore flow that continues to moderate daytime heating in San Francisco, positioning the August 12 high most likely in the 68–71°F range and aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities around 70–71°F. This coastal pattern, typical for mid-August, features low stratus and fog that delay solar warming until afternoon, when temperatures often peak near the long-term average of 70°F. Ensemble runs show limited upside potential from stronger warming, while recent observations confirm highs remaining in the upper 60s amid sea-breeze reinforcement. Traders appear to weigh this established meteorological setup against the low historical frequency of exceeding 75°F in the city during similar marine-influenced periods.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,012End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service model guidance highlights a persistent marine layer and moderate onshore flow that continues to moderate daytime heating in San Francisco, positioning the August 12 high most likely in the 68–71°F range and aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities around 70–71°F. This coastal pattern, typical for mid-August, features low stratus and fog that delay solar warming until afternoon, when temperatures often peak near the long-term average of 70°F. Ensemble runs show limited upside potential from stronger warming, while recent observations confirm highs remaining in the upper 60s amid sea-breeze reinforcement. Traders appear to weigh this established meteorological setup against the low historical frequency of exceeding 75°F in the city during similar marine-influenced periods.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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