Recent high-pressure dominance over the UK has sustained a heatwave across southern England, with clear skies and light winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and elevating overnight minima in London. Official Met Office guidance for August 15 projects a daytime maximum near 28°C and nighttime low of 16°C, yet ensemble models show spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects that could keep the minimum closer to 19–21°C. Traders appear to weight the latter scenario more heavily given the ongoing warm advection and lack of significant frontal passage in the next 48 hours, producing tight implied probabilities between 20°C and 21°C. Updated short-range guidance and any late-model shifts in cloud cover or wind will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 15?
Lowest temperature in London on August 15?
20°C 36%
21°C 34%
19°C 17%
18°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
5%
16°C
7%
17°C
5%
18°C
8%
19°C
17%
20°C
36%
21°C
34%
22°C
7%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
2%
20°C 36%
21°C 34%
19°C 17%
18°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
14°C or below
$10 Vol.
1%
15°C
$15 Vol.
5%
16°C
$15 Vol.
7%
17°C
$24 Vol.
5%
18°C
$65 Vol.
8%
19°C
$12 Vol.
17%
20°C
$0 Vol.
36%
21°C
$12 Vol.
34%
22°C
$16 Vol.
7%
23°C
$40 Vol.
5%
24°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-pressure dominance over the UK has sustained a heatwave across southern England, with clear skies and light winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and elevating overnight minima in London. Official Met Office guidance for August 15 projects a daytime maximum near 28°C and nighttime low of 16°C, yet ensemble models show spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects that could keep the minimum closer to 19–21°C. Traders appear to weight the latter scenario more heavily given the ongoing warm advection and lack of significant frontal passage in the next 48 hours, producing tight implied probabilities between 20°C and 21°C. Updated short-range guidance and any late-model shifts in cloud cover or wind will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$214End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-pressure dominance over the UK has sustained a heatwave across southern England, with clear skies and light winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and elevating overnight minima in London. Official Met Office guidance for August 15 projects a daytime maximum near 28°C and nighttime low of 16°C, yet ensemble models show spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects that could keep the minimum closer to 19–21°C. Traders appear to weight the latter scenario more heavily given the ongoing warm advection and lack of significant frontal passage in the next 48 hours, producing tight implied probabilities between 20°C and 21°C. Updated short-range guidance and any late-model shifts in cloud cover or wind will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$214End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent high-pressure dominance over the UK has sustained a heatwave across southern England, with clear skies and light winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and elevating overnight minima in London. Official Met Office guidance for August 15 projects a daytime maximum near 28°C and nighttime low of 16°C, yet ensemble models show spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects that could keep the minimum closer to 19–21°C. Traders appear to weight the latter scenario more heavily given the ongoing warm advection and lack of significant frontal passage in the next 48 hours, producing tight implied probabilities between 20°C and 21°C. Updated short-range guidance and any late-model shifts in cloud cover or wind will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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