Recent forecast guidance from models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates Warsaw highs on August 15 likely falling between 29–32°C under scattered clouds and light southerly flow, supporting the market’s leading 31°C outcome at 32.5% implied probability. Key variables include the strength of warm-air advection from central Europe, afternoon cloud cover that could suppress peak readings, and any embedded showers that lower maximum temperatures by several degrees. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 23–26°C, so current warmer-than-average conditions reflect a transient ridge, yet model spread and limited predictability two days out sustain the wide probability distribution across 29–32°C buckets. Updated runs and official observations will further refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 15?
31°C 34%
30°C 20%
29°C 19%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
1%
29°C
19%
30°C
25%
31°C
34%
32°C
14%
33°C
6%
34°C
6%
35°C or higher
2%
31°C 34%
30°C 20%
29°C 19%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
$10 Vol.
1%
26°C
$12 Vol.
1%
27°C
$7 Vol.
4%
28°C
$12 Vol.
1%
29°C
$19 Vol.
19%
30°C
$0 Vol.
25%
31°C
$17 Vol.
34%
32°C
$3 Vol.
14%
33°C
$38 Vol.
6%
34°C
$30 Vol.
6%
35°C or higher
$30 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates Warsaw highs on August 15 likely falling between 29–32°C under scattered clouds and light southerly flow, supporting the market’s leading 31°C outcome at 32.5% implied probability. Key variables include the strength of warm-air advection from central Europe, afternoon cloud cover that could suppress peak readings, and any embedded showers that lower maximum temperatures by several degrees. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 23–26°C, so current warmer-than-average conditions reflect a transient ridge, yet model spread and limited predictability two days out sustain the wide probability distribution across 29–32°C buckets. Updated runs and official observations will further refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$178End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates Warsaw highs on August 15 likely falling between 29–32°C under scattered clouds and light southerly flow, supporting the market’s leading 31°C outcome at 32.5% implied probability. Key variables include the strength of warm-air advection from central Europe, afternoon cloud cover that could suppress peak readings, and any embedded showers that lower maximum temperatures by several degrees. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 23–26°C, so current warmer-than-average conditions reflect a transient ridge, yet model spread and limited predictability two days out sustain the wide probability distribution across 29–32°C buckets. Updated runs and official observations will further refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$178End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates Warsaw highs on August 15 likely falling between 29–32°C under scattered clouds and light southerly flow, supporting the market’s leading 31°C outcome at 32.5% implied probability. Key variables include the strength of warm-air advection from central Europe, afternoon cloud cover that could suppress peak readings, and any embedded showers that lower maximum temperatures by several degrees. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 23–26°C, so current warmer-than-average conditions reflect a transient ridge, yet model spread and limited predictability two days out sustain the wide probability distribution across 29–32°C buckets. Updated runs and official observations will further refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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