Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for New York City points to overnight lows near 70–74°F on August 14 amid persistently above-average late-summer warmth, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for the 72–73°F and 74–75°F bins. Key differentiating factors include forecast uncertainty around cloud cover that could suppress radiative cooling, light wind speeds that limit mixing, and boundary-layer moisture levels that retain heat near the surface. Historical August minima average around 68–70°F, but the current seasonal outlook favoring warmer-than-normal conditions has elevated trader expectations for a higher floor. Updated model runs and early-morning observations before resolution will clarify whether the minimum settles in the upper 60s or low 70s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 14?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 14?
72-73°F 39%
74-75°F 35%
70-71°F 17%
68-69°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
7%
70-71°F
17%
72-73°F
39%
74-75°F
35%
76-77°F
6%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
72-73°F 39%
74-75°F 35%
70-71°F 17%
68-69°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
63°F or below
$291 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$301 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$13 Vol.
3%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
7%
70-71°F
$119 Vol.
17%
72-73°F
$44 Vol.
39%
74-75°F
$114 Vol.
35%
76-77°F
$6 Vol.
6%
78-79°F
$137 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$117 Vol.
1%
82°F or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for New York City points to overnight lows near 70–74°F on August 14 amid persistently above-average late-summer warmth, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for the 72–73°F and 74–75°F bins. Key differentiating factors include forecast uncertainty around cloud cover that could suppress radiative cooling, light wind speeds that limit mixing, and boundary-layer moisture levels that retain heat near the surface. Historical August minima average around 68–70°F, but the current seasonal outlook favoring warmer-than-normal conditions has elevated trader expectations for a higher floor. Updated model runs and early-morning observations before resolution will clarify whether the minimum settles in the upper 60s or low 70s.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,154End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for New York City points to overnight lows near 70–74°F on August 14 amid persistently above-average late-summer warmth, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for the 72–73°F and 74–75°F bins. Key differentiating factors include forecast uncertainty around cloud cover that could suppress radiative cooling, light wind speeds that limit mixing, and boundary-layer moisture levels that retain heat near the surface. Historical August minima average around 68–70°F, but the current seasonal outlook favoring warmer-than-normal conditions has elevated trader expectations for a higher floor. Updated model runs and early-morning observations before resolution will clarify whether the minimum settles in the upper 60s or low 70s.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,154End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for New York City points to overnight lows near 70–74°F on August 14 amid persistently above-average late-summer warmth, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for the 72–73°F and 74–75°F bins. Key differentiating factors include forecast uncertainty around cloud cover that could suppress radiative cooling, light wind speeds that limit mixing, and boundary-layer moisture levels that retain heat near the surface. Historical August minima average around 68–70°F, but the current seasonal outlook favoring warmer-than-normal conditions has elevated trader expectations for a higher floor. Updated model runs and early-morning observations before resolution will clarify whether the minimum settles in the upper 60s or low 70s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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