Recent National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance points to a New York City overnight low on August 13 most likely settling between 72°F and 75°F, consistent with the current air mass and limited cloud cover expected to allow moderate radiative cooling after sunset. Mid-August climatology shows typical lows near 70°F, but persistent humidity, urban heat island effects, and light winds often temper overnight drops. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these bins reflects model consensus on steering patterns and sea-breeze influences, while residual spread arises from microscale variations in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Updated evening observations and final model runs will further refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 13?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 13?
74-75°F 27%
72-73°F 23%
70-71°F 20%
76-77°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
4%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
20%
72-73°F
23%
74-75°F
27%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
7%
80°F or higher
5%
74-75°F 27%
72-73°F 23%
70-71°F 20%
76-77°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
61°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
4%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
4%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
7%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
6%
70-71°F
$25 Vol.
20%
72-73°F
$18 Vol.
23%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
27%
76-77°F
$3 Vol.
10%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
7%
80°F or higher
$12 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance points to a New York City overnight low on August 13 most likely settling between 72°F and 75°F, consistent with the current air mass and limited cloud cover expected to allow moderate radiative cooling after sunset. Mid-August climatology shows typical lows near 70°F, but persistent humidity, urban heat island effects, and light winds often temper overnight drops. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these bins reflects model consensus on steering patterns and sea-breeze influences, while residual spread arises from microscale variations in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Updated evening observations and final model runs will further refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$57End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance points to a New York City overnight low on August 13 most likely settling between 72°F and 75°F, consistent with the current air mass and limited cloud cover expected to allow moderate radiative cooling after sunset. Mid-August climatology shows typical lows near 70°F, but persistent humidity, urban heat island effects, and light winds often temper overnight drops. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these bins reflects model consensus on steering patterns and sea-breeze influences, while residual spread arises from microscale variations in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Updated evening observations and final model runs will further refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$57End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance points to a New York City overnight low on August 13 most likely settling between 72°F and 75°F, consistent with the current air mass and limited cloud cover expected to allow moderate radiative cooling after sunset. Mid-August climatology shows typical lows near 70°F, but persistent humidity, urban heat island effects, and light winds often temper overnight drops. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these bins reflects model consensus on steering patterns and sea-breeze influences, while residual spread arises from microscale variations in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Updated evening observations and final model runs will further refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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