Recent USGS data show moderate global seismicity through mid-August 2026, with multiple M6.0+ events along Pacific subduction zones including the M6.8 Kumamoto, Japan quake on August 5, M6.3 events near the Kermadec Islands and Philippines, and an M7.4 in Colombia earlier in the month. These align with background rates of roughly 140–180 M6–6.9 earthquakes worldwide annually, concentrated in tectonically active regions where plate boundaries accumulate strain. Precise short-term prediction remains impossible, as USGS monitoring confirms no reliable precursors exist; probabilities rest on long-term hazard models and ongoing catalog updates. Traders weigh continued activity in high-strain arcs against the remaining weeks until August 31 resolution, with new real-time detections able to shift implied probabilities rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhere will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
Japan
64%
United States
24%
Chile
17%
Mexico
16%
Indonesia
46%
Philippines
57%
$1,667 Vol.
Japan
$193 Vol.
64%
United States
$483 Vol.
24%
Chile
$101 Vol.
17%
Mexico
$315 Vol.
16%
Indonesia
$257 Vol.
46%
Philippines
$318 Vol.
57%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent USGS data show moderate global seismicity through mid-August 2026, with multiple M6.0+ events along Pacific subduction zones including the M6.8 Kumamoto, Japan quake on August 5, M6.3 events near the Kermadec Islands and Philippines, and an M7.4 in Colombia earlier in the month. These align with background rates of roughly 140–180 M6–6.9 earthquakes worldwide annually, concentrated in tectonically active regions where plate boundaries accumulate strain. Precise short-term prediction remains impossible, as USGS monitoring confirms no reliable precursors exist; probabilities rest on long-term hazard models and ongoing catalog updates. Traders weigh continued activity in high-strain arcs against the remaining weeks until August 31 resolution, with new real-time detections able to shift implied probabilities rapidly.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,667End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent USGS data show moderate global seismicity through mid-August 2026, with multiple M6.0+ events along Pacific subduction zones including the M6.8 Kumamoto, Japan quake on August 5, M6.3 events near the Kermadec Islands and Philippines, and an M7.4 in Colombia earlier in the month. These align with background rates of roughly 140–180 M6–6.9 earthquakes worldwide annually, concentrated in tectonically active regions where plate boundaries accumulate strain. Precise short-term prediction remains impossible, as USGS monitoring confirms no reliable precursors exist; probabilities rest on long-term hazard models and ongoing catalog updates. Traders weigh continued activity in high-strain arcs against the remaining weeks until August 31 resolution, with new real-time detections able to shift implied probabilities rapidly.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Volume
$1,667End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent USGS data show moderate global seismicity through mid-August 2026, with multiple M6.0+ events along Pacific subduction zones including the M6.8 Kumamoto, Japan quake on August 5, M6.3 events near the Kermadec Islands and Philippines, and an M7.4 in Colombia earlier in the month. These align with background rates of roughly 140–180 M6–6.9 earthquakes worldwide annually, concentrated in tectonically active regions where plate boundaries accumulate strain. Precise short-term prediction remains impossible, as USGS monitoring confirms no reliable precursors exist; probabilities rest on long-term hazard models and ongoing catalog updates. Traders weigh continued activity in high-strain arcs against the remaining weeks until August 31 resolution, with new real-time detections able to shift implied probabilities rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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