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icon for Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?
Politics·Mexico

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?

icon for Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?
Politics·Mexico

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?

$199,499 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$199,499 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30, 2026

$148,200 Vol.

2%

December 31, 2026

$7,653 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Claudia Sheinbaum maintains a firm grip on power amid ongoing US-Mexico tensions over drug trafficking indictments against ten current and former Mexican officials announced in early May 2026, which she has dismissed as lacking sufficient evidence for extraditions. These developments, including party splits within Morena over potential cooperation with the Trump administration, have fueled criticism but no formal impeachment proceedings or resignation pressure, given her party's congressional supermajority. Approval ratings dipped to record lows in April due to persistent violence and corruption perceptions but rebounded above 60% in recent polls, underscoring her political resilience. With no snap elections or no-confidence mechanisms in Mexico's system, traders price low odds on early departure before her 2030 term end, barring unforeseen scandals or health events.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$199,499
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 27, 2025, 7:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Claudia Sheinbaum maintains a firm grip on power amid ongoing US-Mexico tensions over drug trafficking indictments against ten current and former Mexican officials announced in early May 2026, which she has dismissed as lacking sufficient evidence for extraditions. These developments, including party splits within Morena over potential cooperation with the Trump administration, have fueled criticism but no formal impeachment proceedings or resignation pressure, given her party's congressional supermajority. Approval ratings dipped to record lows in April due to persistent violence and corruption perceptions but rebounded above 60% in recent polls, underscoring her political resilience. With no snap elections or no-confidence mechanisms in Mexico's system, traders price low odds on early departure before her 2030 term end, barring unforeseen scandals or health events.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$199,499
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 27, 2025, 7:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 6%, followed by "June 30, 2026" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?" has generated $199.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 27, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at just 6%, with "June 30, 2026" close behind at 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.