**Ukraine's ongoing martial law, extended through at least August 2, 2026, continues to bar presidential elections under the constitution, allowing incumbent Volodymyr Zelenskyy to remain in office until a successor is sworn in.** No vote is feasible or scheduled before the June 30, 2026 resolution date, and recent diplomatic activity—including Zelenskyy's June 2026 meetings with NATO officials—shows him actively exercising presidential authority without signs of imminent departure. Traders assign 99.3% probability to "No" because structural barriers remain firmly in place: repeated 90-day martial law renewals, the absence of a ceasefire or security guarantees needed for any electoral process, and the lack of parliamentary or legal pathways for removal or resignation in the immediate term. Historical precedent and current conditions reinforce this consensus, with no verified developments in the past month pointing to a sudden transition. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain narrow and low-probability given the short window. These include an unexpected voluntary resignation, acute health-related incapacity, or an internal political or military development forcing early removal—none of which have materialized or appear imminent based on available information.