Javier Milei’s position as president through the end of his term in 2027 rests on Argentina’s constitutional requirements for impeachment or resignation, which demand broad congressional majorities that remain absent amid a fragmented opposition. Recent developments, including the June 2026 resignation of Cabinet chief Manuel Adorni amid corruption allegations and ongoing economic pressures such as rising unemployment and a Q2 GDP contraction, have lowered Milei’s approval ratings to the 30-38% range. However, these have not translated into viable removal proceedings. Traders assign a 96.3% probability to Milei completing his term because mid-term ousters are rare without acute crises or legislative consensus, and scheduled events like the 2027 election provide the primary outlet for political change. Late-breaking scandals or sharp economic reversals remain the main variables that could still shift these odds.