Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 69% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by June 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions since early April revelations of prior U.S. quiet expulsions—including Iran's deputy UN envoy in late 2025—and overt moves by Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon declaring Iranian envoys persona non grata over national security concerns and regional proxy tensions. No verified plots, terror links, or escalatory incidents have surfaced in the past 40 days amid stalled U.S.-Iran direct talks, with Tehran pivoting to intermediaries like Oman and Pakistan while rejecting "humiliating" terms. Absent fresh catalysts such as IRGC-linked activities or Hezbollah flare-ups, traders see limited near-term risk of further expulsions before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 69% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by June 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions since early April revelations of prior U.S. quiet expulsions—including Iran's deputy UN envoy in late 2025—and overt moves by Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon declaring Iranian envoys persona non grata over national security concerns and regional proxy tensions. No verified plots, terror links, or escalatory incidents have surfaced in the past 40 days amid stalled U.S.-Iran direct talks, with Tehran pivoting to intermediaries like Oman and Pakistan while rejecting "humiliating" terms. Absent fresh catalysts such as IRGC-linked activities or Hezbollah flare-ups, traders see limited near-term risk of further expulsions before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$7,512End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 69% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by June 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions since early April revelations of prior U.S. quiet expulsions—including Iran's deputy UN envoy in late 2025—and overt moves by Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon declaring Iranian envoys persona non grata over national security concerns and regional proxy tensions. No verified plots, terror links, or escalatory incidents have surfaced in the past 40 days amid stalled U.S.-Iran direct talks, with Tehran pivoting to intermediaries like Oman and Pakistan while rejecting "humiliating" terms. Absent fresh catalysts such as IRGC-linked activities or Hezbollah flare-ups, traders see limited near-term risk of further expulsions before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,512End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 69% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by June 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions since early April revelations of prior U.S. quiet expulsions—including Iran's deputy UN envoy in late 2025—and overt moves by Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon declaring Iranian envoys persona non grata over national security concerns and regional proxy tensions. No verified plots, terror links, or escalatory incidents have surfaced in the past 40 days amid stalled U.S.-Iran direct talks, with Tehran pivoting to intermediaries like Oman and Pakistan while rejecting "humiliating" terms. Absent fresh catalysts such as IRGC-linked activities or Hezbollah flare-ups, traders see limited near-term risk of further expulsions before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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