US-Iran diplomatic negotiations, mediated by Pakistan amid the 2026 war ceasefire, have stalled since Vice President JD Vance's marathon April talks in Islamabad ended without agreement, prompting cancellations of planned envoy visits by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Iran submitted updated peace proposals in early May addressing Strait of Hormuz access and nuclear issues, but President Trump expressed dissatisfaction and rejected Tehran's latest response on May 11, underscoring persistent gaps. With no new summits announced, trader consensus reflects uncertainty for in-person meetings by May 31, hinging on proposal acceptance or escalation signals; historical patterns favor lower-level envoys in sensitive early-stage diplomacy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$78,995 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Jared Kushner
21%
Steve Witkoff
16%
J.D. Vance
12%
Marco Rubio
5%
Donald Trump
3%
$78,995 Vol.
Jared Kushner
$22,201 Vol.
21%
Steve Witkoff
$19,828 Vol.
16%
J.D. Vance
$21,972 Vol.
12%
Marco Rubio
$5,680 Vol.
5%
Donald Trump
$9,315 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic negotiations, mediated by Pakistan amid the 2026 war ceasefire, have stalled since Vice President JD Vance's marathon April talks in Islamabad ended without agreement, prompting cancellations of planned envoy visits by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Iran submitted updated peace proposals in early May addressing Strait of Hormuz access and nuclear issues, but President Trump expressed dissatisfaction and rejected Tehran's latest response on May 11, underscoring persistent gaps. With no new summits announced, trader consensus reflects uncertainty for in-person meetings by May 31, hinging on proposal acceptance or escalation signals; historical patterns favor lower-level envoys in sensitive early-stage diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$78,995End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic negotiations, mediated by Pakistan amid the 2026 war ceasefire, have stalled since Vice President JD Vance's marathon April talks in Islamabad ended without agreement, prompting cancellations of planned envoy visits by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Iran submitted updated peace proposals in early May addressing Strait of Hormuz access and nuclear issues, but President Trump expressed dissatisfaction and rejected Tehran's latest response on May 11, underscoring persistent gaps. With no new summits announced, trader consensus reflects uncertainty for in-person meetings by May 31, hinging on proposal acceptance or escalation signals; historical patterns favor lower-level envoys in sensitive early-stage diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$78,995End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomatic negotiations, mediated by Pakistan amid the 2026 war ceasefire, have stalled since Vice President JD Vance's marathon April talks in Islamabad ended without agreement, prompting cancellations of planned envoy visits by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Iran submitted updated peace proposals in early May addressing Strait of Hormuz access and nuclear issues, but President Trump expressed dissatisfaction and rejected Tehran's latest response on May 11, underscoring persistent gaps. With no new summits announced, trader consensus reflects uncertainty for in-person meetings by May 31, hinging on proposal acceptance or escalation signals; historical patterns favor lower-level envoys in sensitive early-stage diplomacy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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