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icon for Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?
Politics·Iran

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?

icon for Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?
Politics·Iran

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?

4% chance
Polymarket
NEW
4% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify. A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form. The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 95.6% implied probability against Congress passing an Iran war powers resolution by May 31, driven by repeated bipartisan rejections of Democratic-led measures invoking the 1973 War Powers Resolution to curb U.S. hostilities in Iran. Since major combat began in late February, at least six Senate blocks and multiple House defeats—such as 213-214 on April 16 and party-line tallies through April 30—have occurred amid the 60-day authorization deadline lapse on May 1, with Republicans holding firm and some Democrats like Sen. Fetterman opposing. The Trump administration claims a ceasefire negates further approval needs. Recent introductions like Rep. Foushee's resolution face slim odds without GOP defections, major escalation, or procedural breakthroughs before Memorial Day recesses.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.

A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.

The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,520
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify. A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form. The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify. A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form. The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 95.6% implied probability against Congress passing an Iran war powers resolution by May 31, driven by repeated bipartisan rejections of Democratic-led measures invoking the 1973 War Powers Resolution to curb U.S. hostilities in Iran. Since major combat began in late February, at least six Senate blocks and multiple House defeats—such as 213-214 on April 16 and party-line tallies through April 30—have occurred amid the 60-day authorization deadline lapse on May 1, with Republicans holding firm and some Democrats like Sen. Fetterman opposing. The Trump administration claims a ceasefire negates further approval needs. Recent introductions like Rep. Foushee's resolution face slim odds without GOP defections, major escalation, or procedural breakthroughs before Memorial Day recesses.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.

A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.

The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,520
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify. A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form. The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 4% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 4¢, the market collectively assigns a 4% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?" is 4% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 4% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.