Recent U.S. Justice Department actions against operatives linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and proxy groups have shaped trader views on this market. On May 15, federal authorities arrested and charged an Iraqi national with multiple terrorism counts for directing nearly 20 attacks targeting U.S. citizens and Jewish sites in coordination with Iranian-backed militias. This development, occurring just two weeks before the May 31 deadline, aligns with ongoing counterintelligence probes into espionage, sanctions evasion, and migrant-smuggling networks involving Iranian nationals. Traders appear to weigh the pace of these cases against the short remaining window, producing the current 66 percent implied probability for a charge by the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
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May 31, 2026
NEW
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May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent U.S. Justice Department actions against operatives linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and proxy groups have shaped trader views on this market. On May 15, federal authorities arrested and charged an Iraqi national with multiple terrorism counts for directing nearly 20 attacks targeting U.S. citizens and Jewish sites in coordination with Iranian-backed militias. This development, occurring just two weeks before the May 31 deadline, aligns with ongoing counterintelligence probes into espionage, sanctions evasion, and migrant-smuggling networks involving Iranian nationals. Traders appear to weigh the pace of these cases against the short remaining window, producing the current 66 percent implied probability for a charge by the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
Volume
$6,827End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent U.S. Justice Department actions against operatives linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and proxy groups have shaped trader views on this market. On May 15, federal authorities arrested and charged an Iraqi national with multiple terrorism counts for directing nearly 20 attacks targeting U.S. citizens and Jewish sites in coordination with Iranian-backed militias. This development, occurring just two weeks before the May 31 deadline, aligns with ongoing counterintelligence probes into espionage, sanctions evasion, and migrant-smuggling networks involving Iranian nationals. Traders appear to weigh the pace of these cases against the short remaining window, producing the current 66 percent implied probability for a charge by the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$6,845End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. Justice Department actions against operatives linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and proxy groups have shaped trader views on this market. On May 15, federal authorities arrested and charged an Iraqi national with multiple terrorism counts for directing nearly 20 attacks targeting U.S. citizens and Jewish sites in coordination with Iranian-backed militias. This development, occurring just two weeks before the May 31 deadline, aligns with ongoing counterintelligence probes into espionage, sanctions evasion, and migrant-smuggling networks involving Iranian nationals. Traders appear to weigh the pace of these cases against the short remaining window, producing the current 66 percent implied probability for a charge by the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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