Trader consensus implies a 98.3% probability that Tucker Carlson will not face federal charges, driven by the complete absence of any DOJ indictment, grand jury proceedings, or official announcements nearly two months after his mid-March 2026 claims. Carlson alleged CIA surveillance of his communications and preparation of a criminal referral for potential Foreign Agents Registration Act violations stemming from Iran-related contacts amid U.S. foreign policy debates. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed these assertions as unfounded, with no subsequent agency actions confirming an investigation. High confidence persists due to procedural barriers like evidentiary thresholds and historical low rates of FARA prosecutions against media figures; realistic shifts would require late-breaking evidence, a special counsel appointment, or escalation in Iran diplomacy triggering executive branch scrutiny.