**Bank of Mexico (Banxico) monetary policy expectations for November 2026 center on a hold at the current 6.50% overnight interbank rate, reflecting the central bank’s post-easing stance.** Following 25-basis-point cuts in March and May 2026 that ended a multi-year easing cycle, the board has held rates steady since June, citing the need to anchor inflation expectations amid persistent core pressures. June 2026 headline inflation eased to 3.37% year-over-year—the lowest since late 2020—while core inflation remained near 4.03%, keeping the balance of risks tilted to the upside due to potential trade disruptions, peso volatility, and climate factors. Modest GDP growth forecasts around 1.2% further support caution, with analyst surveys showing near-unanimous expectations for no change through year-end. The November 5 meeting follows the August 6 and September 24 decisions, where any shift would likely require clearer disinflation or sharper economic weakness to alter the current policy path priced by markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 79%
50+ bps decrease 10%
50+ bps increase 10%
25 bps decrease 8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 5, 2026
50+ bps decrease
10%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
79%
25 bps increase
5%
50+ bps increase
10%
No change 79%
50+ bps decrease 10%
50+ bps increase 10%
25 bps decrease 8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 5, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$20 Vol.
10%
25 bps decrease
$20 Vol.
8%
No change
$40 Vol.
79%
25 bps increase
$20 Vol.
5%
50+ bps increase
$20 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Bank of Mexico (Banxico) monetary policy expectations for November 2026 center on a hold at the current 6.50% overnight interbank rate, reflecting the central bank’s post-easing stance.** Following 25-basis-point cuts in March and May 2026 that ended a multi-year easing cycle, the board has held rates steady since June, citing the need to anchor inflation expectations amid persistent core pressures. June 2026 headline inflation eased to 3.37% year-over-year—the lowest since late 2020—while core inflation remained near 4.03%, keeping the balance of risks tilted to the upside due to potential trade disruptions, peso volatility, and climate factors. Modest GDP growth forecasts around 1.2% further support caution, with analyst surveys showing near-unanimous expectations for no change through year-end. The November 5 meeting follows the August 6 and September 24 decisions, where any shift would likely require clearer disinflation or sharper economic weakness to alter the current policy path priced by markets.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$120End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Bank of Mexico (Banxico) monetary policy expectations for November 2026 center on a hold at the current 6.50% overnight interbank rate, reflecting the central bank’s post-easing stance.** Following 25-basis-point cuts in March and May 2026 that ended a multi-year easing cycle, the board has held rates steady since June, citing the need to anchor inflation expectations amid persistent core pressures. June 2026 headline inflation eased to 3.37% year-over-year—the lowest since late 2020—while core inflation remained near 4.03%, keeping the balance of risks tilted to the upside due to potential trade disruptions, peso volatility, and climate factors. Modest GDP growth forecasts around 1.2% further support caution, with analyst surveys showing near-unanimous expectations for no change through year-end. The November 5 meeting follows the August 6 and September 24 decisions, where any shift would likely require clearer disinflation or sharper economic weakness to alter the current policy path priced by markets.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$120End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Bank of Mexico (Banxico) monetary policy expectations for November 2026 center on a hold at the current 6.50% overnight interbank rate, reflecting the central bank’s post-easing stance.** Following 25-basis-point cuts in March and May 2026 that ended a multi-year easing cycle, the board has held rates steady since June, citing the need to anchor inflation expectations amid persistent core pressures. June 2026 headline inflation eased to 3.37% year-over-year—the lowest since late 2020—while core inflation remained near 4.03%, keeping the balance of risks tilted to the upside due to potential trade disruptions, peso volatility, and climate factors. Modest GDP growth forecasts around 1.2% further support caution, with analyst surveys showing near-unanimous expectations for no change through year-end. The November 5 meeting follows the August 6 and September 24 decisions, where any shift would likely require clearer disinflation or sharper economic weakness to alter the current policy path priced by markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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