Trader sentiment for July U.S. tornado counts currently favors below-average outcomes, with the <100 and 100–129 bins leading at 42.5% and 39% implied probability. This positioning stems from persistent atmospheric suppression observed through mid-June 2026, including a severe weather lull across the Plains and Midwest, depleted low-level moisture from High Plains drought, and neutral ENSO conditions following La Niña's exit. July climatology already shows declining activity relative to the May–June peak, with a 1991–2020 average near 119 events. Key differentiating factors include convective available potential energy (CAPE) levels, deep-layer wind shear, and jet stream positioning; sustained ridging or dry air would reinforce lower totals, while an influx of Gulf moisture and stronger shear could elevate counts toward or above recent high-end variability of 210.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many Tornadoes in the US in July?
How many Tornadoes in the US in July?
<100 42%
100–129 39%
310+ 26%
280–310 25%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 1, 2026
<100
42%
100–129
39%
130–159
24%
160–189
24%
190–219
25%
220–249
21%
250–279
21%
280–310
25%
310+
26%
<100 42%
100–129 39%
310+ 26%
280–310 25%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 1, 2026
<100
$30 Vol.
42%
100–129
$44 Vol.
39%
130–159
$78 Vol.
24%
160–189
$40 Vol.
24%
190–219
$41 Vol.
25%
220–249
$33 Vol.
21%
250–279
$53 Vol.
21%
280–310
$131 Vol.
25%
310+
$40 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for July U.S. tornado counts currently favors below-average outcomes, with the <100 and 100–129 bins leading at 42.5% and 39% implied probability. This positioning stems from persistent atmospheric suppression observed through mid-June 2026, including a severe weather lull across the Plains and Midwest, depleted low-level moisture from High Plains drought, and neutral ENSO conditions following La Niña's exit. July climatology already shows declining activity relative to the May–June peak, with a 1991–2020 average near 119 events. Key differentiating factors include convective available potential energy (CAPE) levels, deep-layer wind shear, and jet stream positioning; sustained ridging or dry air would reinforce lower totals, while an influx of Gulf moisture and stronger shear could elevate counts toward or above recent high-end variability of 210.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
ভলিউম
$489শেষ তারিখ
Aug 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for July U.S. tornado counts currently favors below-average outcomes, with the <100 and 100–129 bins leading at 42.5% and 39% implied probability. This positioning stems from persistent atmospheric suppression observed through mid-June 2026, including a severe weather lull across the Plains and Midwest, depleted low-level moisture from High Plains drought, and neutral ENSO conditions following La Niña's exit. July climatology already shows declining activity relative to the May–June peak, with a 1991–2020 average near 119 events. Key differentiating factors include convective available potential energy (CAPE) levels, deep-layer wind shear, and jet stream positioning; sustained ridging or dry air would reinforce lower totals, while an influx of Gulf moisture and stronger shear could elevate counts toward or above recent high-end variability of 210.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ভলিউম
$489শেষ তারিখ
Aug 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for July U.S. tornado counts currently favors below-average outcomes, with the <100 and 100–129 bins leading at 42.5% and 39% implied probability. This positioning stems from persistent atmospheric suppression observed through mid-June 2026, including a severe weather lull across the Plains and Midwest, depleted low-level moisture from High Plains drought, and neutral ENSO conditions following La Niña's exit. July climatology already shows declining activity relative to the May–June peak, with a 1991–2020 average near 119 events. Key differentiating factors include convective available potential energy (CAPE) levels, deep-layer wind shear, and jet stream positioning; sustained ridging or dry air would reinforce lower totals, while an influx of Gulf moisture and stronger shear could elevate counts toward or above recent high-end variability of 210.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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