Traders currently favor no California magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquake in 2026 at 66% implied probability, driven by the absence of any such event through late July despite ongoing monitoring by the USGS. The state’s major faults produce M7+ quakes infrequently on annual timescales, with historical records and the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast showing typical recurrence intervals measured in decades rather than single years. Recent activity has included a June 5.6 near Redwood Valley and smaller swarms, but these remain well below resolution thresholds and have not indicated accelerated strain release on primary faults. With roughly five months remaining and no new model runs or aftershock sequences signaling elevated risk, the market reflects the low baseline annual probability tempered by the elapsed portion of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
NEW
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
NEW
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Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. Traders currently favor no California magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquake in 2026 at 66% implied probability, driven by the absence of any such event through late July despite ongoing monitoring by the USGS. The state’s major faults produce M7+ quakes infrequently on annual timescales, with historical records and the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast showing typical recurrence intervals measured in decades rather than single years. Recent activity has included a June 5.6 near Redwood Valley and smaller swarms, but these remain well below resolution thresholds and have not indicated accelerated strain release on primary faults. With roughly five months remaining and no new model runs or aftershock sequences signaling elevated risk, the market reflects the low baseline annual probability tempered by the elapsed portion of the year.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. Traders currently favor no California magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquake in 2026 at 66% implied probability, driven by the absence of any such event through late July despite ongoing monitoring by the USGS. The state’s major faults produce M7+ quakes infrequently on annual timescales, with historical records and the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast showing typical recurrence intervals measured in decades rather than single years. Recent activity has included a June 5.6 near Redwood Valley and smaller swarms, but these remain well below resolution thresholds and have not indicated accelerated strain release on primary faults. With roughly five months remaining and no new model runs or aftershock sequences signaling elevated risk, the market reflects the low baseline annual probability tempered by the elapsed portion of the year.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Volume
$40End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders currently favor no California magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquake in 2026 at 66% implied probability, driven by the absence of any such event through late July despite ongoing monitoring by the USGS. The state’s major faults produce M7+ quakes infrequently on annual timescales, with historical records and the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast showing typical recurrence intervals measured in decades rather than single years. Recent activity has included a June 5.6 near Redwood Valley and smaller swarms, but these remain well below resolution thresholds and have not indicated accelerated strain release on primary faults. With roughly five months remaining and no new model runs or aftershock sequences signaling elevated risk, the market reflects the low baseline annual probability tempered by the elapsed portion of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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