Recent model runs from global and regional forecasts, including those aligned with INMET monitoring, indicate a polar air mass advecting cooler, drier conditions across southeastern Brazil, suppressing São Paulo’s daytime maximum well below the August climatological average of 23–25°C. This setup, reinforced by stable high pressure and limited moisture, positions 16–17°C as the leading outcomes with combined market-implied odds exceeding 70%. Traders are weighting the tight consensus on boundary-layer temperatures and minimal daytime warming under clear to partly cloudy skies, while acknowledging residual uncertainty from any late steering-pattern shifts or localized urban effects that could nudge readings slightly higher or lower before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 11?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 11?
17°C 42%
16°C 35%
15°C 14%
18°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
14%
16°C
35%
17°C
42%
18°C
10%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
1%
17°C 42%
16°C 35%
15°C 14%
18°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
11°C or below
$22 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$22 Vol.
1%
14°C
$22 Vol.
2%
15°C
$243 Vol.
14%
16°C
$272 Vol.
35%
17°C
$155 Vol.
42%
18°C
$222 Vol.
10%
19°C
$40 Vol.
2%
20°C
$34 Vol.
2%
21°C or higher
$32 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from global and regional forecasts, including those aligned with INMET monitoring, indicate a polar air mass advecting cooler, drier conditions across southeastern Brazil, suppressing São Paulo’s daytime maximum well below the August climatological average of 23–25°C. This setup, reinforced by stable high pressure and limited moisture, positions 16–17°C as the leading outcomes with combined market-implied odds exceeding 70%. Traders are weighting the tight consensus on boundary-layer temperatures and minimal daytime warming under clear to partly cloudy skies, while acknowledging residual uncertainty from any late steering-pattern shifts or localized urban effects that could nudge readings slightly higher or lower before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,085End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from global and regional forecasts, including those aligned with INMET monitoring, indicate a polar air mass advecting cooler, drier conditions across southeastern Brazil, suppressing São Paulo’s daytime maximum well below the August climatological average of 23–25°C. This setup, reinforced by stable high pressure and limited moisture, positions 16–17°C as the leading outcomes with combined market-implied odds exceeding 70%. Traders are weighting the tight consensus on boundary-layer temperatures and minimal daytime warming under clear to partly cloudy skies, while acknowledging residual uncertainty from any late steering-pattern shifts or localized urban effects that could nudge readings slightly higher or lower before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,085End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from global and regional forecasts, including those aligned with INMET monitoring, indicate a polar air mass advecting cooler, drier conditions across southeastern Brazil, suppressing São Paulo’s daytime maximum well below the August climatological average of 23–25°C. This setup, reinforced by stable high pressure and limited moisture, positions 16–17°C as the leading outcomes with combined market-implied odds exceeding 70%. Traders are weighting the tight consensus on boundary-layer temperatures and minimal daytime warming under clear to partly cloudy skies, while acknowledging residual uncertainty from any late steering-pattern shifts or localized urban effects that could nudge readings slightly higher or lower before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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