Short-range forecast models from INMET and global ensembles converge on a daytime maximum near 23–24 °C for São Paulo on 12 August, reflecting a transitional high-pressure ridge after a recent frontal passage and only modest warm advection ahead of a weak trough. These conditions, typical of the Southern Hemisphere winter, limit daytime heating under partly cloudy skies while preventing significant warming or cooling extremes. Historical August climatology shows average highs around 23–25 °C, placing the current setup squarely within normal variability. Traders have therefore concentrated probability on 24 °C and 25 °C, with smaller shares on adjacent outcomes, as new model runs or observational updates could still shift the exact peak by 1 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 12?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 12?
24°C 45%
25°C 32%
26°C 14%
23°C 8%
NEW
$19,313 Vol.
NEW
$19,313 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
8%
24°C
45%
25°C
32%
26°C
14%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 45%
25°C 32%
26°C 14%
23°C 8%
NEW
$19,313 Vol.
NEW
$19,313 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
19°C or below
$320 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$735 Vol.
1%
21°C
$2,399 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,360 Vol.
4%
23°C
$4,590 Vol.
8%
24°C
$3,266 Vol.
45%
25°C
$1,215 Vol.
32%
26°C
$1,081 Vol.
14%
27°C
$723 Vol.
2%
28°C
$494 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$3,129 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range forecast models from INMET and global ensembles converge on a daytime maximum near 23–24 °C for São Paulo on 12 August, reflecting a transitional high-pressure ridge after a recent frontal passage and only modest warm advection ahead of a weak trough. These conditions, typical of the Southern Hemisphere winter, limit daytime heating under partly cloudy skies while preventing significant warming or cooling extremes. Historical August climatology shows average highs around 23–25 °C, placing the current setup squarely within normal variability. Traders have therefore concentrated probability on 24 °C and 25 °C, with smaller shares on adjacent outcomes, as new model runs or observational updates could still shift the exact peak by 1 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$19,313End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range forecast models from INMET and global ensembles converge on a daytime maximum near 23–24 °C for São Paulo on 12 August, reflecting a transitional high-pressure ridge after a recent frontal passage and only modest warm advection ahead of a weak trough. These conditions, typical of the Southern Hemisphere winter, limit daytime heating under partly cloudy skies while preventing significant warming or cooling extremes. Historical August climatology shows average highs around 23–25 °C, placing the current setup squarely within normal variability. Traders have therefore concentrated probability on 24 °C and 25 °C, with smaller shares on adjacent outcomes, as new model runs or observational updates could still shift the exact peak by 1 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19,313End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-range forecast models from INMET and global ensembles converge on a daytime maximum near 23–24 °C for São Paulo on 12 August, reflecting a transitional high-pressure ridge after a recent frontal passage and only modest warm advection ahead of a weak trough. These conditions, typical of the Southern Hemisphere winter, limit daytime heating under partly cloudy skies while preventing significant warming or cooling extremes. Historical August climatology shows average highs around 23–25 °C, placing the current setup squarely within normal variability. Traders have therefore concentrated probability on 24 °C and 25 °C, with smaller shares on adjacent outcomes, as new model runs or observational updates could still shift the exact peak by 1 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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