Forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather place Austin’s August 14 high near 99°F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, with heat indices climbing above 105°F amid 30-50% humidity and light southerly flow. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on 98-99°F (50.5%) and 96-97°F (30%), reflecting typical mid-August subtropical ridge persistence that suppresses cloud cover and maximizes daytime insolation. Recent ensemble guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability, with no strong frontal passage or increased moisture expected to cap temperatures below the mid-90s or push them into triple digits. Historical climatology supports upper-90s peaks as the most probable outcome before any late-month pattern shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 14?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 14?
98-99°F 51%
96-97°F 29%
100-101°F 9%
94-95°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
87°F or below
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
7%
96-97°F
29%
98-99°F
51%
100-101°F
9%
102-103°F
2%
104-105°F
1%
106°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 51%
96-97°F 29%
100-101°F 9%
94-95°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
87°F or below
$192 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$222 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$609 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$517 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$1,295 Vol.
7%
96-97°F
$1,182 Vol.
29%
98-99°F
$2,575 Vol.
51%
100-101°F
$684 Vol.
9%
102-103°F
$335 Vol.
2%
104-105°F
$449 Vol.
1%
106°F or higher
$750 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather place Austin’s August 14 high near 99°F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, with heat indices climbing above 105°F amid 30-50% humidity and light southerly flow. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on 98-99°F (50.5%) and 96-97°F (30%), reflecting typical mid-August subtropical ridge persistence that suppresses cloud cover and maximizes daytime insolation. Recent ensemble guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability, with no strong frontal passage or increased moisture expected to cap temperatures below the mid-90s or push them into triple digits. Historical climatology supports upper-90s peaks as the most probable outcome before any late-month pattern shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$8,810End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather place Austin’s August 14 high near 99°F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, with heat indices climbing above 105°F amid 30-50% humidity and light southerly flow. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on 98-99°F (50.5%) and 96-97°F (30%), reflecting typical mid-August subtropical ridge persistence that suppresses cloud cover and maximizes daytime insolation. Recent ensemble guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability, with no strong frontal passage or increased moisture expected to cap temperatures below the mid-90s or push them into triple digits. Historical climatology supports upper-90s peaks as the most probable outcome before any late-month pattern shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,810End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather place Austin’s August 14 high near 99°F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, with heat indices climbing above 105°F amid 30-50% humidity and light southerly flow. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on 98-99°F (50.5%) and 96-97°F (30%), reflecting typical mid-August subtropical ridge persistence that suppresses cloud cover and maximizes daytime insolation. Recent ensemble guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability, with no strong frontal passage or increased moisture expected to cap temperatures below the mid-90s or push them into triple digits. Historical climatology supports upper-90s peaks as the most probable outcome before any late-month pattern shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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