The market's near-even split reflects ongoing Ebola transmission risks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo without confirmed spillover into entirely new nations as of late September. The Bundibugyo strain outbreak has expanded to seven provinces and 63 health zones within DRC, with fresh cases reported near borders with South Sudan and the Central African Republic, heightening cross-border concerns amid conflict and access challenges. Earlier imported cases in Uganda and France resolved without sustained local spread, and no verified detections elsewhere have surfaced in recent days. Traders weigh improved contact tracing and declining trends in some DRC areas against surveillance gaps that could mask rapid developments. Any official confirmation from neighboring health ministries or WHO alerts before October 1 would likely shift sentiment sharply, while continued containment within existing borders would reinforce the current slight lean toward no new country.