The closely contested "No" at 53.5% reflects trader assessment of containment momentum in the ongoing DRC-Uganda Bundibugyo outbreak, where aggressive response campaigns and border controls have limited fresh international spread since imported cases surfaced in France and Germany earlier this summer. Recent developments, including Uganda declaring its outbreak over by late July and no new confirmations across neighboring territories despite cross-border travel risks, have tilted sentiment toward stability through early fall. Key swing factors include any undetected export via conflict zones or medical evacuations that could trigger rapid WHO notifications. Upcoming catalysts such as fresh case tallies, Africa CDC briefings, or precursor signals from high-traffic hubs like South Sudan and Rwanda could quickly shift the narrative and push probabilities if a new market debut emerges before the October deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEbola: new country confirmed before October 1?
Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1?
0% chance
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Oct 1, 2026
0% chance
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Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The closely contested "No" at 53.5% reflects trader assessment of containment momentum in the ongoing DRC-Uganda Bundibugyo outbreak, where aggressive response campaigns and border controls have limited fresh international spread since imported cases surfaced in France and Germany earlier this summer. Recent developments, including Uganda declaring its outbreak over by late July and no new confirmations across neighboring territories despite cross-border travel risks, have tilted sentiment toward stability through early fall. Key swing factors include any undetected export via conflict zones or medical evacuations that could trigger rapid WHO notifications. Upcoming catalysts such as fresh case tallies, Africa CDC briefings, or precursor signals from high-traffic hubs like South Sudan and Rwanda could quickly shift the narrative and push probabilities if a new market debut emerges before the October deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The closely contested "No" at 53.5% reflects trader assessment of containment momentum in the ongoing DRC-Uganda Bundibugyo outbreak, where aggressive response campaigns and border controls have limited fresh international spread since imported cases surfaced in France and Germany earlier this summer. Recent developments, including Uganda declaring its outbreak over by late July and no new confirmations across neighboring territories despite cross-border travel risks, have tilted sentiment toward stability through early fall. Key swing factors include any undetected export via conflict zones or medical evacuations that could trigger rapid WHO notifications. Upcoming catalysts such as fresh case tallies, Africa CDC briefings, or precursor signals from high-traffic hubs like South Sudan and Rwanda could quickly shift the narrative and push probabilities if a new market debut emerges before the October deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested "No" at 53.5% reflects trader assessment of containment momentum in the ongoing DRC-Uganda Bundibugyo outbreak, where aggressive response campaigns and border controls have limited fresh international spread since imported cases surfaced in France and Germany earlier this summer. Recent developments, including Uganda declaring its outbreak over by late July and no new confirmations across neighboring territories despite cross-border travel risks, have tilted sentiment toward stability through early fall. Key swing factors include any undetected export via conflict zones or medical evacuations that could trigger rapid WHO notifications. Upcoming catalysts such as fresh case tallies, Africa CDC briefings, or precursor signals from high-traffic hubs like South Sudan and Rwanda could quickly shift the narrative and push probabilities if a new market debut emerges before the October deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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