**Forecast models for Mexico City on October 2 project overnight lows near 12–14°C amid the transition out of the rainy season, yet the near-even market split between 9°C or below and 19°C or higher reflects substantial uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling.** Recent ensemble runs show variable cloud cover and possible light showers that could suppress minimum temperatures by limiting heat loss or, conversely, allow clearer skies for stronger drops. Historical October baselines place typical minima around 10–12°C, but short-term shifts in humidity, wind, and precipitation timing—key variables monitored by services like Mexico’s meteorological agency—can easily swing the daily low by several degrees. Updated model guidance and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen trader consensus on whether conditions favor the lower or higher end of the distribution.