October precipitation in New York City shows high interannual variability around the 4.38-inch 1991–2020 normal, with recent extremes ranging from near-zero totals in 2024 to over 16 inches in 2005. A strengthening El Niño, projected to reach historic intensity by late fall, favors enhanced moisture transport and coastal storm activity along the East Coast, though its primary wet signal for the Northeast typically strengthens after October. Current seasonal guidance points to near-average rainfall through the month, tempered by reduced tropical cyclone risk. With October just beginning, model consensus remains limited on exact totals, leaving trader-implied probabilities balanced across bins as atmospheric patterns and any early-month systems will determine whether accumulation stays near the median or shifts toward drier or wetter outcomes.