A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +3°C and forecast to peak near or above prior records in late 2026, forms the dominant driver behind balanced trader odds across October anomaly ranges near 1.3–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This warming influence lags Pacific heat by several months and compounds long-term anthropogenic trends plus record global ocean temperatures, yet monthly outcomes remain sensitive to short-term atmospheric variability, model ensemble spreads, and exact timing of peak conditions. Recent ERA5 and multi-model data show September anomalies near +0.85°C relative to 1991–2020, with October expected to reflect continued El Niño forcing amid typical seasonal cooling. Upcoming NOAA and ECMWF updates through early October will refine resolution thresholds for these closely matched outcomes.