Trader consensus reflected in the leading 39.5% implied probability for a 25°C high on October 1 centers on ensemble forecasts from regional models projecting a peak near that threshold amid northeasterly winds and increasing cloud cover. These conditions, typical of early-autumn transition in the Yangtze River Delta, moderate daytime heating while limiting radiative warming, consistent with historical October averages around 22–25°C. Recent model runs show tight clustering between 24–26°C, with lower odds for 27°C or above tied to uncertainties in boundary-layer moisture and any brief clearing. Official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration will provide the definitive maximum temperature reading for market resolution.