Recent ensemble forecasts from global models show Shanghai's October 2 maximum likely reaching 23–25°C under persistent overcast skies and northeasterly flow, limiting daytime heating through reduced insolation. Current conditions feature moderating temperatures after late-September warmth, with October 1 rain and higher humidity further suppressing peaks. This aligns with early-October climatology near 22–24°C while model spread around exact timing of cloud breaks and boundary-layer mixing keeps 24°C and 25°C nearly tied in trader probabilities. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine resolution thresholds ahead of the 24-hour observation window.