Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center establish the dominant driver, projecting daytime highs of 15–17°C across Moscow on September 30 under partly cloudy skies, northerly winds of 3–8 m/s, and stable high pressure near 762–763 mmHg with no precipitation. Multiple model runs and real-time observations during the day have clustered near the upper end of this range, producing the market's 99.6% implied probability for a 17°C maximum. Historical September 30 averages near 13°C and recent cooler nights further support the mild anomaly. Only a sharp, unforecasted late-day drop or station-specific measurement variance could realistically shift the outcome outside the narrow 15–17°C band.