Recent forecasts from GFS and regional models indicate Moscow's October 2 maximum will likely reach 12–13 °C under a strong anticyclone with high pressure near 763 hPa, northwesterly flow, and increasing afternoon cloud cover that limits solar heating. This setup follows late-September warmth and produces near-normal autumn values, with radiative cooling overnight and modest daytime advection keeping the peak tightly clustered. Ensemble spreads and minor differences in predicted cloud thickness or wind timing create the narrow gap among 12 °C, 13 °C, and 14 °C outcomes, which together capture over 80 % of market-implied probability and reflect genuine short-range uncertainty rather than a single dominant scenario. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold.