**Forecast consensus for São Paulo on August 15 centers on a maximum of 23–26°C**, with market-implied probabilities highest for 25°C (28.5%) and 26°C (33.5%). Official guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and timeanddate.com points to a high near 23–25°C (74–77°F) under overcast or broken-cloud conditions, consistent with typical mid-August subtropical winter patterns. Key scientific drivers include persistent southeasterly flow from the Atlantic moderating daytime heating, combined with variable low-level cloud cover that limits solar insolation and caps temperature rise. Recent model runs show only modest spread, reflecting stable high-pressure influence without strong frontal systems or significant moisture advection. Historical August averages for the city hover around 23–25°C, and August 2026 has trended slightly above climatology across parts of southern Brazil, supporting the slight upward tilt in trader pricing for the upper end of the 24–26°C range. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at INMET or equivalent stations; small differences in timing of any afternoon clearing or local urban heat effects can shift the outcome between the closely matched leading probabilities. Updated model guidance and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will provide the clearest signals for any revision in expected peak temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 15?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 15?
26°C 34%
25°C 28%
24°C 16%
27°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
7%
24°C
16%
25°C
28%
26°C
34%
27°C
11%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 34%
25°C 28%
24°C 16%
27°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$37 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$98 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$231 Vol.
1%
23°C
$590 Vol.
7%
24°C
$554 Vol.
16%
25°C
$588 Vol.
28%
26°C
$1,966 Vol.
34%
27°C
$595 Vol.
11%
28°C
$71 Vol.
1%
29°C
$60 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$197 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for São Paulo on August 15 centers on a maximum of 23–26°C**, with market-implied probabilities highest for 25°C (28.5%) and 26°C (33.5%). Official guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and timeanddate.com points to a high near 23–25°C (74–77°F) under overcast or broken-cloud conditions, consistent with typical mid-August subtropical winter patterns.
Key scientific drivers include persistent southeasterly flow from the Atlantic moderating daytime heating, combined with variable low-level cloud cover that limits solar insolation and caps temperature rise. Recent model runs show only modest spread, reflecting stable high-pressure influence without strong frontal systems or significant moisture advection. Historical August averages for the city hover around 23–25°C, and August 2026 has trended slightly above climatology across parts of southern Brazil, supporting the slight upward tilt in trader pricing for the upper end of the 24–26°C range.
Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at INMET or equivalent stations; small differences in timing of any afternoon clearing or local urban heat effects can shift the outcome between the closely matched leading probabilities. Updated model guidance and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will provide the clearest signals for any revision in expected peak temperature.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$4,989End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for São Paulo on August 15 centers on a maximum of 23–26°C**, with market-implied probabilities highest for 25°C (28.5%) and 26°C (33.5%). Official guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and timeanddate.com points to a high near 23–25°C (74–77°F) under overcast or broken-cloud conditions, consistent with typical mid-August subtropical winter patterns.
Key scientific drivers include persistent southeasterly flow from the Atlantic moderating daytime heating, combined with variable low-level cloud cover that limits solar insolation and caps temperature rise. Recent model runs show only modest spread, reflecting stable high-pressure influence without strong frontal systems or significant moisture advection. Historical August averages for the city hover around 23–25°C, and August 2026 has trended slightly above climatology across parts of southern Brazil, supporting the slight upward tilt in trader pricing for the upper end of the 24–26°C range.
Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at INMET or equivalent stations; small differences in timing of any afternoon clearing or local urban heat effects can shift the outcome between the closely matched leading probabilities. Updated model guidance and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will provide the clearest signals for any revision in expected peak temperature.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,989End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus for São Paulo on August 15 centers on a maximum of 23–26°C**, with market-implied probabilities highest for 25°C (28.5%) and 26°C (33.5%). Official guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and timeanddate.com points to a high near 23–25°C (74–77°F) under overcast or broken-cloud conditions, consistent with typical mid-August subtropical winter patterns. Key scientific drivers include persistent southeasterly flow from the Atlantic moderating daytime heating, combined with variable low-level cloud cover that limits solar insolation and caps temperature rise. Recent model runs show only modest spread, reflecting stable high-pressure influence without strong frontal systems or significant moisture advection. Historical August averages for the city hover around 23–25°C, and August 2026 has trended slightly above climatology across parts of southern Brazil, supporting the slight upward tilt in trader pricing for the upper end of the 24–26°C range. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at INMET or equivalent stations; small differences in timing of any afternoon clearing or local urban heat effects can shift the outcome between the closely matched leading probabilities. Updated model guidance and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will provide the clearest signals for any revision in expected peak temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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