Current model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and regional forecasts points to a daily high of 25–27°C in Istanbul on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 26°C. Late-summer conditions feature moderating Black Sea and Marmara influences that typically cap extremes, while weak northerly flow and limited cloud cover support peak readings near the seasonal average of 27–28°C. Recent model runs show no significant heat advection or subsidence strengthening, keeping probabilities concentrated in the narrow 25–27°C band rather than higher outliers. Traders are monitoring the next 48-hour ECMWF and GFS updates for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns that could alter the maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 16?
26°C 46%
27°C 27%
25°C 18%
24°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
18%
26°C
46%
27°C
27%
28°C
5%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
2%
26°C 46%
27°C 27%
25°C 18%
24°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
22°C or below
$293 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$126 Vol.
2%
24°C
$3 Vol.
5%
25°C
$54 Vol.
18%
26°C
$594 Vol.
46%
27°C
$152 Vol.
27%
28°C
$87 Vol.
5%
29°C
$76 Vol.
2%
30°C
$140 Vol.
3%
31°C
$271 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$15 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and regional forecasts points to a daily high of 25–27°C in Istanbul on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 26°C. Late-summer conditions feature moderating Black Sea and Marmara influences that typically cap extremes, while weak northerly flow and limited cloud cover support peak readings near the seasonal average of 27–28°C. Recent model runs show no significant heat advection or subsidence strengthening, keeping probabilities concentrated in the narrow 25–27°C band rather than higher outliers. Traders are monitoring the next 48-hour ECMWF and GFS updates for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns that could alter the maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,810End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and regional forecasts points to a daily high of 25–27°C in Istanbul on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 26°C. Late-summer conditions feature moderating Black Sea and Marmara influences that typically cap extremes, while weak northerly flow and limited cloud cover support peak readings near the seasonal average of 27–28°C. Recent model runs show no significant heat advection or subsidence strengthening, keeping probabilities concentrated in the narrow 25–27°C band rather than higher outliers. Traders are monitoring the next 48-hour ECMWF and GFS updates for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns that could alter the maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,810End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and regional forecasts points to a daily high of 25–27°C in Istanbul on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 26°C. Late-summer conditions feature moderating Black Sea and Marmara influences that typically cap extremes, while weak northerly flow and limited cloud cover support peak readings near the seasonal average of 27–28°C. Recent model runs show no significant heat advection or subsidence strengthening, keeping probabilities concentrated in the narrow 25–27°C band rather than higher outliers. Traders are monitoring the next 48-hour ECMWF and GFS updates for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns that could alter the maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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