**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s August 15 maximum temperature centers on 31–32 °C (combined ~62 % implied probability) because official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and ensemble forecasts project a daytime high of 32 °C under 70–95 % rain chance.** Lingering subsidence from ex-Tropical Storm Dolphin has kept the region hot and humid, but an approaching upper-air disturbance and southwesterly flow are expected to increase cloud cover and showers, limiting solar heating and capping afternoon peaks. Climatologically, early-to-mid August means hover near 31–32 °C; the spread to 30 °C or 33–34 °C reflects uncertainty in shower timing and intensity, which can shave or add 1–2 °C depending on when convection develops. Higher outcomes (35 °C+) carry low probability as model consensus shows moderating conditions rather than renewed clear-sky heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
31°C 33%
32°C 30%
30°C 23%
33°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
2%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
24%
31°C
33%
32°C
30%
33°C
19%
34°C
17%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
1%
31°C 33%
32°C 30%
30°C 23%
33°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$17 Vol.
2%
28°C
$17 Vol.
1%
29°C
$10 Vol.
4%
30°C
$100 Vol.
24%
31°C
$73 Vol.
33%
32°C
$0 Vol.
30%
33°C
$0 Vol.
19%
34°C
$0 Vol.
17%
35°C
$10 Vol.
1%
36°C
$12 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s August 15 maximum temperature centers on 31–32 °C (combined ~62 % implied probability) because official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and ensemble forecasts project a daytime high of 32 °C under 70–95 % rain chance.** Lingering subsidence from ex-Tropical Storm Dolphin has kept the region hot and humid, but an approaching upper-air disturbance and southwesterly flow are expected to increase cloud cover and showers, limiting solar heating and capping afternoon peaks. Climatologically, early-to-mid August means hover near 31–32 °C; the spread to 30 °C or 33–34 °C reflects uncertainty in shower timing and intensity, which can shave or add 1–2 °C depending on when convection develops. Higher outcomes (35 °C+) carry low probability as model consensus shows moderating conditions rather than renewed clear-sky heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$189End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s August 15 maximum temperature centers on 31–32 °C (combined ~62 % implied probability) because official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and ensemble forecasts project a daytime high of 32 °C under 70–95 % rain chance.** Lingering subsidence from ex-Tropical Storm Dolphin has kept the region hot and humid, but an approaching upper-air disturbance and southwesterly flow are expected to increase cloud cover and showers, limiting solar heating and capping afternoon peaks. Climatologically, early-to-mid August means hover near 31–32 °C; the spread to 30 °C or 33–34 °C reflects uncertainty in shower timing and intensity, which can shave or add 1–2 °C depending on when convection develops. Higher outcomes (35 °C+) carry low probability as model consensus shows moderating conditions rather than renewed clear-sky heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$189End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s August 15 maximum temperature centers on 31–32 °C (combined ~62 % implied probability) because official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and ensemble forecasts project a daytime high of 32 °C under 70–95 % rain chance.** Lingering subsidence from ex-Tropical Storm Dolphin has kept the region hot and humid, but an approaching upper-air disturbance and southwesterly flow are expected to increase cloud cover and showers, limiting solar heating and capping afternoon peaks. Climatologically, early-to-mid August means hover near 31–32 °C; the spread to 30 °C or 33–34 °C reflects uncertainty in shower timing and intensity, which can shave or add 1–2 °C depending on when convection develops. Higher outcomes (35 °C+) carry low probability as model consensus shows moderating conditions rather than renewed clear-sky heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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