Forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting numerical models indicate an overnight minimum near 27°C on August 15 amid persistent cloud cover, 70–95% relative humidity, and light winds that suppress radiative cooling. This aligns with typical late-summer climatology for the region, where urban heat-island effects and marine influence keep lows in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius. Trader consensus has converged on 26°C at 99.6% implied probability because short-range model runs show limited spread and only modest downward revisions are plausible under enhanced nocturnal cloudiness. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies or an unexpected surge of cooler northerly flow capable of dropping readings to 25°C or below, though current atmospheric conditions and seasonal baselines make such a shift unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
26°C 99.5%
25°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$40,653 Vol.
$40,653 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.5%
25°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$40,653 Vol.
$40,653 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
$723 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$4,923 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$3,228 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$4,665 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$9,538 Vol.
100%
27°C
$8,338 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$4,929 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,367 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,073 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$430 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$440 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting numerical models indicate an overnight minimum near 27°C on August 15 amid persistent cloud cover, 70–95% relative humidity, and light winds that suppress radiative cooling. This aligns with typical late-summer climatology for the region, where urban heat-island effects and marine influence keep lows in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius. Trader consensus has converged on 26°C at 99.6% implied probability because short-range model runs show limited spread and only modest downward revisions are plausible under enhanced nocturnal cloudiness. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies or an unexpected surge of cooler northerly flow capable of dropping readings to 25°C or below, though current atmospheric conditions and seasonal baselines make such a shift unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$40,653End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting numerical models indicate an overnight minimum near 27°C on August 15 amid persistent cloud cover, 70–95% relative humidity, and light winds that suppress radiative cooling. This aligns with typical late-summer climatology for the region, where urban heat-island effects and marine influence keep lows in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius. Trader consensus has converged on 26°C at 99.6% implied probability because short-range model runs show limited spread and only modest downward revisions are plausible under enhanced nocturnal cloudiness. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies or an unexpected surge of cooler northerly flow capable of dropping readings to 25°C or below, though current atmospheric conditions and seasonal baselines make such a shift unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$40,653End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting numerical models indicate an overnight minimum near 27°C on August 15 amid persistent cloud cover, 70–95% relative humidity, and light winds that suppress radiative cooling. This aligns with typical late-summer climatology for the region, where urban heat-island effects and marine influence keep lows in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius. Trader consensus has converged on 26°C at 99.6% implied probability because short-range model runs show limited spread and only modest downward revisions are plausible under enhanced nocturnal cloudiness. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies or an unexpected surge of cooler northerly flow capable of dropping readings to 25°C or below, though current atmospheric conditions and seasonal baselines make such a shift unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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