Recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble models position 32–34°C as the most probable range for Paris’s August 15 high, with 33°C carrying the highest market-implied probability. A cooling Atlantic flow and increasing mid-level moisture are expected to cap daytime heating while raising the chance of afternoon thunderstorms that could further limit peak temperatures. Earlier summer heat-wave conditions have given way to more typical late-summer variability, and short-range model runs show modest spread around these values rather than extremes. Traders are therefore assigning low probability to 35°C or higher, reflecting both the forecast consensus and the historical rarity of such readings once cloud cover and instability increase. Updated model outputs and official bulletins through the evening of August 14 will be the next key inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 15?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?
33°C 45%
34°C 31%
32°C 12%
35°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
4%
32°C
12%
33°C
45%
34°C
31%
35°C
10%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 45%
34°C 31%
32°C 12%
35°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$627 Vol.
1%
31°C
$1,347 Vol.
4%
32°C
$1,878 Vol.
12%
33°C
$1,803 Vol.
45%
34°C
$923 Vol.
31%
35°C
$399 Vol.
10%
36°C
$588 Vol.
1%
37°C
$415 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$353 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$457 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$467 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble models position 32–34°C as the most probable range for Paris’s August 15 high, with 33°C carrying the highest market-implied probability. A cooling Atlantic flow and increasing mid-level moisture are expected to cap daytime heating while raising the chance of afternoon thunderstorms that could further limit peak temperatures. Earlier summer heat-wave conditions have given way to more typical late-summer variability, and short-range model runs show modest spread around these values rather than extremes. Traders are therefore assigning low probability to 35°C or higher, reflecting both the forecast consensus and the historical rarity of such readings once cloud cover and instability increase. Updated model outputs and official bulletins through the evening of August 14 will be the next key inputs.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$9,258End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble models position 32–34°C as the most probable range for Paris’s August 15 high, with 33°C carrying the highest market-implied probability. A cooling Atlantic flow and increasing mid-level moisture are expected to cap daytime heating while raising the chance of afternoon thunderstorms that could further limit peak temperatures. Earlier summer heat-wave conditions have given way to more typical late-summer variability, and short-range model runs show modest spread around these values rather than extremes. Traders are therefore assigning low probability to 35°C or higher, reflecting both the forecast consensus and the historical rarity of such readings once cloud cover and instability increase. Updated model outputs and official bulletins through the evening of August 14 will be the next key inputs.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,258End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble models position 32–34°C as the most probable range for Paris’s August 15 high, with 33°C carrying the highest market-implied probability. A cooling Atlantic flow and increasing mid-level moisture are expected to cap daytime heating while raising the chance of afternoon thunderstorms that could further limit peak temperatures. Earlier summer heat-wave conditions have given way to more typical late-summer variability, and short-range model runs show modest spread around these values rather than extremes. Traders are therefore assigning low probability to 35°C or higher, reflecting both the forecast consensus and the historical rarity of such readings once cloud cover and instability increase. Updated model outputs and official bulletins through the evening of August 14 will be the next key inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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