Recent long-range forecasts from AccuWeather and the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center indicate August 2026 temperatures running warmer than the 1991–2020 Central Park average low of 69°F, with overnight lows for mid-month typically projected between 64–72°F amid generally stable high-pressure patterns. This consensus supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 70–73°F bins, as ensemble guidance shows limited cooling potential from typical August humidity and southerly flow. Any tropical moisture or cloud cover on the 15th could nudge the minimum slightly higher, while clearer radiational cooling remains the main variable that might allow a dip toward the lower-probability 68–69°F range. Updated National Weather Service model runs and local observations on the morning of the 15th will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 15?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 15?
70-71°F 46%
72-73°F 32%
68-69°F 12%
74-75°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
57°F or below
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
5%
66-67°F
4%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
46%
72-73°F
32%
74-75°F
10%
76°F or higher
1%
70-71°F 46%
72-73°F 32%
68-69°F 12%
74-75°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
57°F or below
$15 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$20 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$81 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$157 Vol.
5%
66-67°F
$161 Vol.
4%
68-69°F
$81 Vol.
12%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
46%
72-73°F
$55 Vol.
32%
74-75°F
$141 Vol.
10%
76°F or higher
$416 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent long-range forecasts from AccuWeather and the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center indicate August 2026 temperatures running warmer than the 1991–2020 Central Park average low of 69°F, with overnight lows for mid-month typically projected between 64–72°F amid generally stable high-pressure patterns. This consensus supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 70–73°F bins, as ensemble guidance shows limited cooling potential from typical August humidity and southerly flow. Any tropical moisture or cloud cover on the 15th could nudge the minimum slightly higher, while clearer radiational cooling remains the main variable that might allow a dip toward the lower-probability 68–69°F range. Updated National Weather Service model runs and local observations on the morning of the 15th will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,132End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent long-range forecasts from AccuWeather and the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center indicate August 2026 temperatures running warmer than the 1991–2020 Central Park average low of 69°F, with overnight lows for mid-month typically projected between 64–72°F amid generally stable high-pressure patterns. This consensus supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 70–73°F bins, as ensemble guidance shows limited cooling potential from typical August humidity and southerly flow. Any tropical moisture or cloud cover on the 15th could nudge the minimum slightly higher, while clearer radiational cooling remains the main variable that might allow a dip toward the lower-probability 68–69°F range. Updated National Weather Service model runs and local observations on the morning of the 15th will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,132End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent long-range forecasts from AccuWeather and the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center indicate August 2026 temperatures running warmer than the 1991–2020 Central Park average low of 69°F, with overnight lows for mid-month typically projected between 64–72°F amid generally stable high-pressure patterns. This consensus supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 70–73°F bins, as ensemble guidance shows limited cooling potential from typical August humidity and southerly flow. Any tropical moisture or cloud cover on the 15th could nudge the minimum slightly higher, while clearer radiational cooling remains the main variable that might allow a dip toward the lower-probability 68–69°F range. Updated National Weather Service model runs and local observations on the morning of the 15th will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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