Recent forecasts from sources including Météo-France and European models show a post-heatwave cooldown for Paris, with overnight lows on August 16 expected near 17–19°C amid partly cloudy skies and lighter winds. This follows daytime peaks of 33–38°C earlier in the week, as a shift in steering patterns allows cooler Atlantic air to moderate temperatures. Nighttime radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the urban heat island effect remain key variables that could nudge the daily minimum slightly higher or lower. Historical August lows average 15–18°C, providing context for why markets assign the highest implied probability (45.5%) to 18°C or below while still pricing meaningful chances around 19–20°C ahead of final model runs and observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 16?
19°C 28%
20°C 21%
22°C 10%
21°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
46%
19°C
28%
20°C
21%
21°C
21%
22°C
10%
23°C
6%
24°C
3%
25°C
3%
26°C
3%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
19°C 28%
20°C 21%
22°C 10%
21°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
$10 Vol.
46%
19°C
$0 Vol.
28%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$438 Vol.
21%
22°C
$10 Vol.
10%
23°C
$48 Vol.
6%
24°C
$15 Vol.
3%
25°C
$10 Vol.
3%
26°C
$10 Vol.
3%
27°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including Météo-France and European models show a post-heatwave cooldown for Paris, with overnight lows on August 16 expected near 17–19°C amid partly cloudy skies and lighter winds. This follows daytime peaks of 33–38°C earlier in the week, as a shift in steering patterns allows cooler Atlantic air to moderate temperatures. Nighttime radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the urban heat island effect remain key variables that could nudge the daily minimum slightly higher or lower. Historical August lows average 15–18°C, providing context for why markets assign the highest implied probability (45.5%) to 18°C or below while still pricing meaningful chances around 19–20°C ahead of final model runs and observations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$562End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including Météo-France and European models show a post-heatwave cooldown for Paris, with overnight lows on August 16 expected near 17–19°C amid partly cloudy skies and lighter winds. This follows daytime peaks of 33–38°C earlier in the week, as a shift in steering patterns allows cooler Atlantic air to moderate temperatures. Nighttime radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the urban heat island effect remain key variables that could nudge the daily minimum slightly higher or lower. Historical August lows average 15–18°C, providing context for why markets assign the highest implied probability (45.5%) to 18°C or below while still pricing meaningful chances around 19–20°C ahead of final model runs and observations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$562End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including Météo-France and European models show a post-heatwave cooldown for Paris, with overnight lows on August 16 expected near 17–19°C amid partly cloudy skies and lighter winds. This follows daytime peaks of 33–38°C earlier in the week, as a shift in steering patterns allows cooler Atlantic air to moderate temperatures. Nighttime radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the urban heat island effect remain key variables that could nudge the daily minimum slightly higher or lower. Historical August lows average 15–18°C, providing context for why markets assign the highest implied probability (45.5%) to 18°C or below while still pricing meaningful chances around 19–20°C ahead of final model runs and observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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