Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models for Miami project an overnight low in the low 80s on August 15, aligning with the market's 99.1% implied probability for 82–83°F. This reflects typical mid-August subtropical conditions, where average lows hover near 80°F amid high humidity, sea surface temperatures near 86°F, and minimal frontal activity that rarely allows significant cooling. Recent observations, including an 82°F minimum on August 14, reinforce the pattern. A realistic challenge would require an atypical cold air intrusion or sharp model shift not currently indicated, though such events remain climatologically rare before late fall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 15?
82-83°F 99.0%
80-81°F 1.1%
78-79°F <1%
67°F or below <1%
$9,329 Vol.
$9,329 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
99%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 99.0%
80-81°F 1.1%
78-79°F <1%
67°F or below <1%
$9,329 Vol.
$9,329 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
67°F or below
$455 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$428 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$553 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$503 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$301 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$614 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$903 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,273 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$1,684 Vol.
99%
84-85°F
$2,096 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$518 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models for Miami project an overnight low in the low 80s on August 15, aligning with the market's 99.1% implied probability for 82–83°F. This reflects typical mid-August subtropical conditions, where average lows hover near 80°F amid high humidity, sea surface temperatures near 86°F, and minimal frontal activity that rarely allows significant cooling. Recent observations, including an 82°F minimum on August 14, reinforce the pattern. A realistic challenge would require an atypical cold air intrusion or sharp model shift not currently indicated, though such events remain climatologically rare before late fall.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$9,329End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models for Miami project an overnight low in the low 80s on August 15, aligning with the market's 99.1% implied probability for 82–83°F. This reflects typical mid-August subtropical conditions, where average lows hover near 80°F amid high humidity, sea surface temperatures near 86°F, and minimal frontal activity that rarely allows significant cooling. Recent observations, including an 82°F minimum on August 14, reinforce the pattern. A realistic challenge would require an atypical cold air intrusion or sharp model shift not currently indicated, though such events remain climatologically rare before late fall.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,329End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models for Miami project an overnight low in the low 80s on August 15, aligning with the market's 99.1% implied probability for 82–83°F. This reflects typical mid-August subtropical conditions, where average lows hover near 80°F amid high humidity, sea surface temperatures near 86°F, and minimal frontal activity that rarely allows significant cooling. Recent observations, including an 82°F minimum on August 14, reinforce the pattern. A realistic challenge would require an atypical cold air intrusion or sharp model shift not currently indicated, though such events remain climatologically rare before late fall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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