Recent forecasts from meteorological services indicate Istanbul's maximum temperature on August 17 will likely fall in the 26–27°C range, aligning with the market's heaviest trading volume at those levels. Mid-August climatology features average highs near 28°C moderated by Bosphorus sea breezes and northerly flows that limit daytime heating, while current model consensus shows stable high pressure with minimal cloud cover and light winds preventing significant warming or cooling extremes. Recent observational data through mid-month confirm temperatures tracking seasonal norms without heatwave signals or unusual advection, keeping probabilities concentrated around the 26–27°C outcomes rather than higher thresholds that would require anomalous southerly flow or clear-sky radiative heating. Updated short-range guidance expected later today could refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 17?
26°C 53%
27°C 30%
25°C 9%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
9%
26°C
53%
27°C
30%
28°C
6%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 53%
27°C 30%
25°C 9%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
21°C or below
$274 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$154 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$100 Vol.
1%
24°C
$65 Vol.
2%
25°C
$44 Vol.
9%
26°C
$204 Vol.
53%
27°C
$229 Vol.
30%
28°C
$134 Vol.
6%
29°C
$153 Vol.
2%
30°C
$315 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$1,004 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological services indicate Istanbul's maximum temperature on August 17 will likely fall in the 26–27°C range, aligning with the market's heaviest trading volume at those levels. Mid-August climatology features average highs near 28°C moderated by Bosphorus sea breezes and northerly flows that limit daytime heating, while current model consensus shows stable high pressure with minimal cloud cover and light winds preventing significant warming or cooling extremes. Recent observational data through mid-month confirm temperatures tracking seasonal norms without heatwave signals or unusual advection, keeping probabilities concentrated around the 26–27°C outcomes rather than higher thresholds that would require anomalous southerly flow or clear-sky radiative heating. Updated short-range guidance expected later today could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$2,676End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological services indicate Istanbul's maximum temperature on August 17 will likely fall in the 26–27°C range, aligning with the market's heaviest trading volume at those levels. Mid-August climatology features average highs near 28°C moderated by Bosphorus sea breezes and northerly flows that limit daytime heating, while current model consensus shows stable high pressure with minimal cloud cover and light winds preventing significant warming or cooling extremes. Recent observational data through mid-month confirm temperatures tracking seasonal norms without heatwave signals or unusual advection, keeping probabilities concentrated around the 26–27°C outcomes rather than higher thresholds that would require anomalous southerly flow or clear-sky radiative heating. Updated short-range guidance expected later today could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,676End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological services indicate Istanbul's maximum temperature on August 17 will likely fall in the 26–27°C range, aligning with the market's heaviest trading volume at those levels. Mid-August climatology features average highs near 28°C moderated by Bosphorus sea breezes and northerly flows that limit daytime heating, while current model consensus shows stable high pressure with minimal cloud cover and light winds preventing significant warming or cooling extremes. Recent observational data through mid-month confirm temperatures tracking seasonal norms without heatwave signals or unusual advection, keeping probabilities concentrated around the 26–27°C outcomes rather than higher thresholds that would require anomalous southerly flow or clear-sky radiative heating. Updated short-range guidance expected later today could refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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