Trader consensus for the NYC high temperature on August 16 centers on the 80–81°F range because National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance project a moderate peak near Central Park under light northeast winds and partly cloudy skies, limiting strong solar heating. This aligns with mid-August climatology where the 1991–2020 average high is 83°F, tempered today by regional steering patterns and possible Atlantic sea-breeze influence that cap readings below the seasonal norm. Recent monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center noted a lean toward above-average conditions for August overall, yet short-term model runs show no significant Bermuda High strengthening or heat advection to push values into the mid-80s or higher. The market’s tight clustering around 80–83°F reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating the latest observational trends and forecast uncertainty inherent in urban microclimates. Final resolution will depend on the official maximum recorded at the Central Park station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 16?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?
80-81°F 51%
82-83°F 22%
78-79°F 20%
76-77°F 5%
NEW
$44,532 Vol.
NEW
$44,532 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
20%
80-81°F
51%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 51%
82-83°F 22%
78-79°F 20%
76-77°F 5%
NEW
$44,532 Vol.
NEW
$44,532 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
71°F or below
$211 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$214 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$20,369 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$6,451 Vol.
5%
78-79°F
$4,351 Vol.
20%
80-81°F
$1,953 Vol.
51%
82-83°F
$4,522 Vol.
22%
84-85°F
$2,805 Vol.
2%
86-87°F
$1,756 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$1,318 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$582 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for the NYC high temperature on August 16 centers on the 80–81°F range because National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance project a moderate peak near Central Park under light northeast winds and partly cloudy skies, limiting strong solar heating. This aligns with mid-August climatology where the 1991–2020 average high is 83°F, tempered today by regional steering patterns and possible Atlantic sea-breeze influence that cap readings below the seasonal norm. Recent monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center noted a lean toward above-average conditions for August overall, yet short-term model runs show no significant Bermuda High strengthening or heat advection to push values into the mid-80s or higher. The market’s tight clustering around 80–83°F reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating the latest observational trends and forecast uncertainty inherent in urban microclimates. Final resolution will depend on the official maximum recorded at the Central Park station.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$44,532End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for the NYC high temperature on August 16 centers on the 80–81°F range because National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance project a moderate peak near Central Park under light northeast winds and partly cloudy skies, limiting strong solar heating. This aligns with mid-August climatology where the 1991–2020 average high is 83°F, tempered today by regional steering patterns and possible Atlantic sea-breeze influence that cap readings below the seasonal norm. Recent monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center noted a lean toward above-average conditions for August overall, yet short-term model runs show no significant Bermuda High strengthening or heat advection to push values into the mid-80s or higher. The market’s tight clustering around 80–83°F reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating the latest observational trends and forecast uncertainty inherent in urban microclimates. Final resolution will depend on the official maximum recorded at the Central Park station.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$44,532End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus for the NYC high temperature on August 16 centers on the 80–81°F range because National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance project a moderate peak near Central Park under light northeast winds and partly cloudy skies, limiting strong solar heating. This aligns with mid-August climatology where the 1991–2020 average high is 83°F, tempered today by regional steering patterns and possible Atlantic sea-breeze influence that cap readings below the seasonal norm. Recent monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center noted a lean toward above-average conditions for August overall, yet short-term model runs show no significant Bermuda High strengthening or heat advection to push values into the mid-80s or higher. The market’s tight clustering around 80–83°F reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating the latest observational trends and forecast uncertainty inherent in urban microclimates. Final resolution will depend on the official maximum recorded at the Central Park station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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