Recent model consensus from global forecasting centers indicates a cooler-than-average air mass over the Sichuan basin for August 18, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered monsoon showers that limit daytime heating. Historical August highs near 30 °C provide context, yet current guidance points to maximum temperatures clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, with limited model spread supporting the market’s tight distribution around 23–25 °C. Key variables include the strength of the subtropical high and any late intensification of precipitation, which could shift outcomes by 1–2 °C. Updated regional model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings expected within 24 hours will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?
25°C 26%
22°C 20%
24°C 19%
23°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
20°C or below
2%
21°C
3%
22°C
20%
23°C
17%
24°C
19%
25°C
26%
26°C
14%
27°C
11%
28°C
5%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
1%
25°C 26%
22°C 20%
24°C 19%
23°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$20 Vol.
3%
22°C
$20 Vol.
20%
23°C
$19 Vol.
17%
24°C
$0 Vol.
19%
25°C
$0 Vol.
26%
26°C
$2 Vol.
14%
27°C
$0 Vol.
11%
28°C
$0 Vol.
5%
29°C
$0 Vol.
3%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global forecasting centers indicates a cooler-than-average air mass over the Sichuan basin for August 18, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered monsoon showers that limit daytime heating. Historical August highs near 30 °C provide context, yet current guidance points to maximum temperatures clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, with limited model spread supporting the market’s tight distribution around 23–25 °C. Key variables include the strength of the subtropical high and any late intensification of precipitation, which could shift outcomes by 1–2 °C. Updated regional model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings expected within 24 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$61End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global forecasting centers indicates a cooler-than-average air mass over the Sichuan basin for August 18, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered monsoon showers that limit daytime heating. Historical August highs near 30 °C provide context, yet current guidance points to maximum temperatures clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, with limited model spread supporting the market’s tight distribution around 23–25 °C. Key variables include the strength of the subtropical high and any late intensification of precipitation, which could shift outcomes by 1–2 °C. Updated regional model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings expected within 24 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$61End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from global forecasting centers indicates a cooler-than-average air mass over the Sichuan basin for August 18, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered monsoon showers that limit daytime heating. Historical August highs near 30 °C provide context, yet current guidance points to maximum temperatures clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, with limited model spread supporting the market’s tight distribution around 23–25 °C. Key variables include the strength of the subtropical high and any late intensification of precipitation, which could shift outcomes by 1–2 °C. Updated regional model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings expected within 24 hours will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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