Persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies under a stable anticyclone over northern Italy are positioning Milan for a peak temperature near 33°C on August 18, aligning with the market's leading 41.5% implied probability. Light easterly to westerly winds of 5–10 km/h will limit boundary-layer mixing while strong August insolation and the Po Valley's topographic heat-trapping effect support afternoon maxima in the 32–34°C range, where combined market odds exceed 90%. Latest short-range guidance from BBC and Met Office runs shows consensus around 33°C with minimal model spread two days out; any slight westward shift in the ridge or earlier cloud cover could favor the 32°C outcome. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected this evening will provide the next key signal before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 18?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 18?
33°C 42%
32°C 29%
34°C 24%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
5%
32°C
29%
33°C
42%
34°C
24%
35°C
5%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 42%
32°C 29%
34°C 24%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
29°C or below
$24 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$8 Vol.
5%
32°C
$52 Vol.
29%
33°C
$68 Vol.
42%
34°C
$9 Vol.
24%
35°C
$16 Vol.
5%
36°C
$78 Vol.
2%
37°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$122 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$404 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies under a stable anticyclone over northern Italy are positioning Milan for a peak temperature near 33°C on August 18, aligning with the market's leading 41.5% implied probability. Light easterly to westerly winds of 5–10 km/h will limit boundary-layer mixing while strong August insolation and the Po Valley's topographic heat-trapping effect support afternoon maxima in the 32–34°C range, where combined market odds exceed 90%. Latest short-range guidance from BBC and Met Office runs shows consensus around 33°C with minimal model spread two days out; any slight westward shift in the ridge or earlier cloud cover could favor the 32°C outcome. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected this evening will provide the next key signal before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$834End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies under a stable anticyclone over northern Italy are positioning Milan for a peak temperature near 33°C on August 18, aligning with the market's leading 41.5% implied probability. Light easterly to westerly winds of 5–10 km/h will limit boundary-layer mixing while strong August insolation and the Po Valley's topographic heat-trapping effect support afternoon maxima in the 32–34°C range, where combined market odds exceed 90%. Latest short-range guidance from BBC and Met Office runs shows consensus around 33°C with minimal model spread two days out; any slight westward shift in the ridge or earlier cloud cover could favor the 32°C outcome. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected this evening will provide the next key signal before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$834End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies under a stable anticyclone over northern Italy are positioning Milan for a peak temperature near 33°C on August 18, aligning with the market's leading 41.5% implied probability. Light easterly to westerly winds of 5–10 km/h will limit boundary-layer mixing while strong August insolation and the Po Valley's topographic heat-trapping effect support afternoon maxima in the 32–34°C range, where combined market odds exceed 90%. Latest short-range guidance from BBC and Met Office runs shows consensus around 33°C with minimal model spread two days out; any slight westward shift in the ridge or earlier cloud cover could favor the 32°C outcome. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected this evening will provide the next key signal before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions