**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a maximum temperature range of 28–33°C on August 16 under west-to-southwest winds of force 2–3, with sunny intervals, a few showers, and isolated early thunderstorms.** This outlook, issued amid post-Typhoon Dolphin moderation, has produced closely matched market-implied odds favoring 32°C or 33°C as the daily high. **Key scientific factors creating the tight split include variable cloud cover and shower timing, which directly influence peak solar insolation and surface heating.** Stronger or earlier convective activity could cap temperatures near 32°C by limiting afternoon warming, while clearer breaks would allow readings to approach or reach 33°C. Model consensus around typical August climatology (average high near 31°C) and residual moisture from recent tropical influences add to the uncertainty between these two thresholds. Traders are weighting the official range and short-term atmospheric steering patterns that will determine whether the upper end materializes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?
32°C 40%
33°C 39%
34°C 13%
31°C 11%
NEW
$11,083 Vol.
NEW
$11,083 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
11%
32°C
40%
33°C
39%
34°C
13%
35°C
2%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 40%
33°C 39%
34°C 13%
31°C 11%
NEW
$11,083 Vol.
NEW
$11,083 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
$887 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$220 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$224 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$958 Vol.
2%
31°C
$3,064 Vol.
11%
32°C
$1,114 Vol.
40%
33°C
$1,918 Vol.
39%
34°C
$1,012 Vol.
13%
35°C
$741 Vol.
2%
36°C
$625 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$321 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a maximum temperature range of 28–33°C on August 16 under west-to-southwest winds of force 2–3, with sunny intervals, a few showers, and isolated early thunderstorms.** This outlook, issued amid post-Typhoon Dolphin moderation, has produced closely matched market-implied odds favoring 32°C or 33°C as the daily high.
**Key scientific factors creating the tight split include variable cloud cover and shower timing, which directly influence peak solar insolation and surface heating.** Stronger or earlier convective activity could cap temperatures near 32°C by limiting afternoon warming, while clearer breaks would allow readings to approach or reach 33°C. Model consensus around typical August climatology (average high near 31°C) and residual moisture from recent tropical influences add to the uncertainty between these two thresholds. Traders are weighting the official range and short-term atmospheric steering patterns that will determine whether the upper end materializes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$11,083End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a maximum temperature range of 28–33°C on August 16 under west-to-southwest winds of force 2–3, with sunny intervals, a few showers, and isolated early thunderstorms.** This outlook, issued amid post-Typhoon Dolphin moderation, has produced closely matched market-implied odds favoring 32°C or 33°C as the daily high.
**Key scientific factors creating the tight split include variable cloud cover and shower timing, which directly influence peak solar insolation and surface heating.** Stronger or earlier convective activity could cap temperatures near 32°C by limiting afternoon warming, while clearer breaks would allow readings to approach or reach 33°C. Model consensus around typical August climatology (average high near 31°C) and residual moisture from recent tropical influences add to the uncertainty between these two thresholds. Traders are weighting the official range and short-term atmospheric steering patterns that will determine whether the upper end materializes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,083End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a maximum temperature range of 28–33°C on August 16 under west-to-southwest winds of force 2–3, with sunny intervals, a few showers, and isolated early thunderstorms.** This outlook, issued amid post-Typhoon Dolphin moderation, has produced closely matched market-implied odds favoring 32°C or 33°C as the daily high. **Key scientific factors creating the tight split include variable cloud cover and shower timing, which directly influence peak solar insolation and surface heating.** Stronger or earlier convective activity could cap temperatures near 32°C by limiting afternoon warming, while clearer breaks would allow readings to approach or reach 33°C. Model consensus around typical August climatology (average high near 31°C) and residual moisture from recent tropical influences add to the uncertainty between these two thresholds. Traders are weighting the official range and short-term atmospheric steering patterns that will determine whether the upper end materializes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions