Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 15, 2026, show a high near 29°C under cloudy skies with occasional scattered showers, directly anchoring the market's leading 29°C outcome at 33.5% implied probability. Persistent moisture and reduced insolation from cloud cover limit daytime heating despite the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Key variables include shower timing and coverage, which could suppress the maximum below 29°C or allow brief clearing to push toward 30–31°C, while steering patterns and humidity levels add further variability to the near-term model consensus. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
29°C 34%
30°C 25%
28°C 13%
31°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
13%
29°C
34%
30°C
29%
31°C
16%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
29°C 34%
30°C 25%
28°C 13%
31°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
24°C or below
$84 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$18 Vol.
1%
26°C
$14 Vol.
1%
27°C
$8 Vol.
5%
28°C
$8 Vol.
13%
29°C
$0 Vol.
34%
30°C
$73 Vol.
29%
31°C
$19 Vol.
16%
32°C
$10 Vol.
4%
33°C
$22 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$17 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 15, 2026, show a high near 29°C under cloudy skies with occasional scattered showers, directly anchoring the market's leading 29°C outcome at 33.5% implied probability. Persistent moisture and reduced insolation from cloud cover limit daytime heating despite the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Key variables include shower timing and coverage, which could suppress the maximum below 29°C or allow brief clearing to push toward 30–31°C, while steering patterns and humidity levels add further variability to the near-term model consensus. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$273End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 15, 2026, show a high near 29°C under cloudy skies with occasional scattered showers, directly anchoring the market's leading 29°C outcome at 33.5% implied probability. Persistent moisture and reduced insolation from cloud cover limit daytime heating despite the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Key variables include shower timing and coverage, which could suppress the maximum below 29°C or allow brief clearing to push toward 30–31°C, while steering patterns and humidity levels add further variability to the near-term model consensus. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$273End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 15, 2026, show a high near 29°C under cloudy skies with occasional scattered showers, directly anchoring the market's leading 29°C outcome at 33.5% implied probability. Persistent moisture and reduced insolation from cloud cover limit daytime heating despite the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Key variables include shower timing and coverage, which could suppress the maximum below 29°C or allow brief clearing to push toward 30–31°C, while steering patterns and humidity levels add further variability to the near-term model consensus. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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