Strengthening El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly, with Niño 3.4 indices already exceeding +1.5°C and models projecting a very strong event (>2.0°C) by fall. This oceanic warming, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, elevates the likelihood of anomalies in the 1.34–1.45°C range above pre-industrial baselines, consistent with recent June–July observations near 1.49°C and record-high extra-polar sea surface temperatures. Model spread in ENSO amplitude and the precise timing of atmospheric coupling introduce uncertainty that keeps leading outcome probabilities closely matched near 39%, while historical analogs and ongoing monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus will refine August estimates ahead of final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.34–1.37ºC 41%
>1.45ºC 41%
1.30–1.33ºC 40%
1.42–1.45ºC 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
40%
1.34–1.37ºC
41%
1.38–1.41ºC
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
40%
>1.45ºC
41%
1.34–1.37ºC 41%
>1.45ºC 41%
1.30–1.33ºC 40%
1.42–1.45ºC 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
$0 Vol.
40%
1.34–1.37ºC
$0 Vol.
41%
1.38–1.41ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
40%
>1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strengthening El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly, with Niño 3.4 indices already exceeding +1.5°C and models projecting a very strong event (>2.0°C) by fall. This oceanic warming, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, elevates the likelihood of anomalies in the 1.34–1.45°C range above pre-industrial baselines, consistent with recent June–July observations near 1.49°C and record-high extra-polar sea surface temperatures. Model spread in ENSO amplitude and the precise timing of atmospheric coupling introduce uncertainty that keeps leading outcome probabilities closely matched near 39%, while historical analogs and ongoing monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus will refine August estimates ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strengthening El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly, with Niño 3.4 indices already exceeding +1.5°C and models projecting a very strong event (>2.0°C) by fall. This oceanic warming, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, elevates the likelihood of anomalies in the 1.34–1.45°C range above pre-industrial baselines, consistent with recent June–July observations near 1.49°C and record-high extra-polar sea surface temperatures. Model spread in ENSO amplitude and the precise timing of atmospheric coupling introduce uncertainty that keeps leading outcome probabilities closely matched near 39%, while historical analogs and ongoing monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus will refine August estimates ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strengthening El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly, with Niño 3.4 indices already exceeding +1.5°C and models projecting a very strong event (>2.0°C) by fall. This oceanic warming, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, elevates the likelihood of anomalies in the 1.34–1.45°C range above pre-industrial baselines, consistent with recent June–July observations near 1.49°C and record-high extra-polar sea surface temperatures. Model spread in ENSO amplitude and the precise timing of atmospheric coupling introduce uncertainty that keeps leading outcome probabilities closely matched near 39%, while historical analogs and ongoing monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus will refine August estimates ahead of final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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