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Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?

icon for Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?

Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?

Ended: Aug 31

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

Ended: Aug 31

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

$21,423 Vol.

Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$21,423 Vol.

Polymarket

2750+

$3,369 Vol.

Yes

2400+

$2,169 Vol.

Yes

2450+

$774 Vol.

Yes

2500+

$1,695 Vol.

Yes

2550+

$4,813 Vol.

Yes

2600+

$4,424 Vol.

Yes

2650+

$2,609 Vol.

Yes

2700+

$1,571 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.Ongoing measles transmission in the United States, driven by large outbreaks that began in 2025 and continue into 2026, has produced 2,777 confirmed cases as of August 20 according to CDC surveillance, already exceeding the full-year 2025 total of 2,289. Most cases (94%) are outbreak-associated and linked to undervaccinated communities, with the majority occurring in children and young adults. Weekly additions of 50–100 cases reflect sustained local spread rather than solely imported infections, consistent with historical patterns when MMR coverage falls below herd-immunity thresholds. CDC’s next weekly update, expected within days, and any new case reports through August 31 will determine the final cumulative total for market resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$21,423
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 10:25 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.Ongoing measles transmission in the United States, driven by large outbreaks that began in 2025 and continue into 2026, has produced 2,777 confirmed cases as of August 20 according to CDC surveillance, already exceeding the full-year 2025 total of 2,289. Most cases (94%) are outbreak-associated and linked to undervaccinated communities, with the majority occurring in children and young adults. Weekly additions of 50–100 cases reflect sustained local spread rather than solely imported infections, consistent with historical patterns when MMR coverage falls below herd-immunity thresholds. CDC’s next weekly update, expected within days, and any new case reports through August 31 will determine the final cumulative total for market resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$21,423
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 10:25 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2750+" at 100%, followed by "2400+" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?" has generated $21.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?" is "2750+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2400+" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.