The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, now the country's largest and second-deadliest on record with over 7,000 cases and 3,400 deaths as of early September 2026, drives trader sentiment through rapid geographic spread across seven provinces amid conflict, displacement, and uneven contact tracing. Imported cases reached Uganda before its declaration of Ebola-free status, while modeling highlights elevated spillover risk to South Sudan via travel routes and weak infrastructure, with lower probabilities for neighbors like Rwanda or Burundi. Persistent transmission despite DRC claims of control, plus one noted case in France, underscores how insecurity and late detection fuel uncertainty around additional 2026 confirmations before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
$38,659 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
South Sudan
60%
Rwanda
23%
Burundi
47%
United States
20%
Canada
23%
Kenya
24%
India
46%
Republic of the Congo
23%
Nigeria
38%
Ethiopia
52%
Somalia
36%
China
13%
$38,659 Vol.
South Sudan
$4,363 Vol.
60%
Rwanda
$2,149 Vol.
23%
Burundi
$202 Vol.
47%
United States
$10,507 Vol.
20%
Canada
$2,307 Vol.
23%
Kenya
$235 Vol.
24%
India
$737 Vol.
46%
Republic of the Congo
$12,400 Vol.
23%
Nigeria
$25 Vol.
38%
Ethiopia
$107 Vol.
52%
Somalia
$129 Vol.
36%
China
$3,543 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, now the country's largest and second-deadliest on record with over 7,000 cases and 3,400 deaths as of early September 2026, drives trader sentiment through rapid geographic spread across seven provinces amid conflict, displacement, and uneven contact tracing. Imported cases reached Uganda before its declaration of Ebola-free status, while modeling highlights elevated spillover risk to South Sudan via travel routes and weak infrastructure, with lower probabilities for neighbors like Rwanda or Burundi. Persistent transmission despite DRC claims of control, plus one noted case in France, underscores how insecurity and late detection fuel uncertainty around additional 2026 confirmations before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$38,659End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, now the country's largest and second-deadliest on record with over 7,000 cases and 3,400 deaths as of early September 2026, drives trader sentiment through rapid geographic spread across seven provinces amid conflict, displacement, and uneven contact tracing. Imported cases reached Uganda before its declaration of Ebola-free status, while modeling highlights elevated spillover risk to South Sudan via travel routes and weak infrastructure, with lower probabilities for neighbors like Rwanda or Burundi. Persistent transmission despite DRC claims of control, plus one noted case in France, underscores how insecurity and late detection fuel uncertainty around additional 2026 confirmations before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$38,659End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, now the country's largest and second-deadliest on record with over 7,000 cases and 3,400 deaths as of early September 2026, drives trader sentiment through rapid geographic spread across seven provinces amid conflict, displacement, and uneven contact tracing. Imported cases reached Uganda before its declaration of Ebola-free status, while modeling highlights elevated spillover risk to South Sudan via travel routes and weak infrastructure, with lower probabilities for neighbors like Rwanda or Burundi. Persistent transmission despite DRC claims of control, plus one noted case in France, underscores how insecurity and late detection fuel uncertainty around additional 2026 confirmations before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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