**Trader consensus for a 28°C minimum temperature in Hong Kong on August 16, 2026, reflects official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models such as those from AccuWeather, which project overnight lows near 28°C (roughly 82°F) amid typical midsummer subtropical conditions.** August averages feature daily lows of 26–28°C due to high humidity, persistent cloud cover, and weak radiative cooling at night. Current guidance for the date shows a forecast range of approximately 28–33°C, consistent with seasonal norms and recent days where similar markets priced minimums in the 28–29°C band. This positioning draws from real-time observational trends and short-range model consensus indicating stable atmospheric conditions with limited cooling potential. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clear skies, stronger winds, or a rare late-summer frontal passage that enhances nocturnal cooling—none of which current data support. The market-implied probability captures this high-confidence forecast stability while acknowledging minor uncertainty in exact station readings or microscale variations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?
28°C 99%
24°C <1%
27°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
$23,315 Vol.
$23,315 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
99%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99%
24°C <1%
27°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
$23,315 Vol.
$23,315 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
$830 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,437 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,326 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$3,291 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,717 Vol.
1%
28°C
$7,421 Vol.
99%
29°C
$3,073 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,433 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$642 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$605 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$540 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus for a 28°C minimum temperature in Hong Kong on August 16, 2026, reflects official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models such as those from AccuWeather, which project overnight lows near 28°C (roughly 82°F) amid typical midsummer subtropical conditions.**
August averages feature daily lows of 26–28°C due to high humidity, persistent cloud cover, and weak radiative cooling at night. Current guidance for the date shows a forecast range of approximately 28–33°C, consistent with seasonal norms and recent days where similar markets priced minimums in the 28–29°C band.
This positioning draws from real-time observational trends and short-range model consensus indicating stable atmospheric conditions with limited cooling potential. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clear skies, stronger winds, or a rare late-summer frontal passage that enhances nocturnal cooling—none of which current data support. The market-implied probability captures this high-confidence forecast stability while acknowledging minor uncertainty in exact station readings or microscale variations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$23,315End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus for a 28°C minimum temperature in Hong Kong on August 16, 2026, reflects official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models such as those from AccuWeather, which project overnight lows near 28°C (roughly 82°F) amid typical midsummer subtropical conditions.**
August averages feature daily lows of 26–28°C due to high humidity, persistent cloud cover, and weak radiative cooling at night. Current guidance for the date shows a forecast range of approximately 28–33°C, consistent with seasonal norms and recent days where similar markets priced minimums in the 28–29°C band.
This positioning draws from real-time observational trends and short-range model consensus indicating stable atmospheric conditions with limited cooling potential. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clear skies, stronger winds, or a rare late-summer frontal passage that enhances nocturnal cooling—none of which current data support. The market-implied probability captures this high-confidence forecast stability while acknowledging minor uncertainty in exact station readings or microscale variations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$23,315End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus for a 28°C minimum temperature in Hong Kong on August 16, 2026, reflects official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models such as those from AccuWeather, which project overnight lows near 28°C (roughly 82°F) amid typical midsummer subtropical conditions.** August averages feature daily lows of 26–28°C due to high humidity, persistent cloud cover, and weak radiative cooling at night. Current guidance for the date shows a forecast range of approximately 28–33°C, consistent with seasonal norms and recent days where similar markets priced minimums in the 28–29°C band. This positioning draws from real-time observational trends and short-range model consensus indicating stable atmospheric conditions with limited cooling potential. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clear skies, stronger winds, or a rare late-summer frontal passage that enhances nocturnal cooling—none of which current data support. The market-implied probability captures this high-confidence forecast stability while acknowledging minor uncertainty in exact station readings or microscale variations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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