The southwest monsoon (habagat) continues to dominate Metro Manila with persistent cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms through August 18–19, moderating daytime heating and keeping maximum temperatures in a narrow 26–31 °C range according to PAGASA outlooks. This pattern suppresses peaks below the seasonal 31 °C average by limiting solar insolation and promoting evaporative cooling, which is why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 27–30 °C. Model consensus shows only modest day-to-day variability tied to the exact timing and intensity of convective cells, with no strong signals for either a clearer, hotter spell or heavier suppression that would push probabilities outside the current band. Updated forecasts on August 17–18 will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 18?
28°C 28%
29°C 25%
27°C 20%
30°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
17%
26°C
10%
27°C
20%
28°C
28%
29°C
25%
30°C
19%
31°C
10%
32°C or higher
14%
28°C 28%
29°C 25%
27°C 20%
30°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
23°C
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
17%
26°C
$0 Vol.
10%
27°C
$0 Vol.
20%
28°C
$0 Vol.
28%
29°C
$0 Vol.
25%
30°C
$0 Vol.
19%
31°C
$0 Vol.
10%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon (habagat) continues to dominate Metro Manila with persistent cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms through August 18–19, moderating daytime heating and keeping maximum temperatures in a narrow 26–31 °C range according to PAGASA outlooks. This pattern suppresses peaks below the seasonal 31 °C average by limiting solar insolation and promoting evaporative cooling, which is why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 27–30 °C. Model consensus shows only modest day-to-day variability tied to the exact timing and intensity of convective cells, with no strong signals for either a clearer, hotter spell or heavier suppression that would push probabilities outside the current band. Updated forecasts on August 17–18 will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon (habagat) continues to dominate Metro Manila with persistent cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms through August 18–19, moderating daytime heating and keeping maximum temperatures in a narrow 26–31 °C range according to PAGASA outlooks. This pattern suppresses peaks below the seasonal 31 °C average by limiting solar insolation and promoting evaporative cooling, which is why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 27–30 °C. Model consensus shows only modest day-to-day variability tied to the exact timing and intensity of convective cells, with no strong signals for either a clearer, hotter spell or heavier suppression that would push probabilities outside the current band. Updated forecasts on August 17–18 will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The southwest monsoon (habagat) continues to dominate Metro Manila with persistent cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms through August 18–19, moderating daytime heating and keeping maximum temperatures in a narrow 26–31 °C range according to PAGASA outlooks. This pattern suppresses peaks below the seasonal 31 °C average by limiting solar insolation and promoting evaporative cooling, which is why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 27–30 °C. Model consensus shows only modest day-to-day variability tied to the exact timing and intensity of convective cells, with no strong signals for either a clearer, hotter spell or heavier suppression that would push probabilities outside the current band. Updated forecasts on August 17–18 will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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