Current forecasts from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models place Istanbul's August 18 maximum near 29–31 °C, consistent with the closely bunched Polymarket outcomes (30 °C at 32.5 %, 31 °C at 27.5 %, 29 °C at 24 %). Mid-August subtropical high pressure and peak solar insolation favor these readings, while the moderating influence of the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea breezes plus potential light northerly flow introduce day-to-day variability of 1–2 °C. Ensemble spread in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs remains modest, reflecting typical uncertainty in afternoon boundary-layer mixing and any thin high cloud. Updated model guidance and official 48-hour forecasts will provide the next clear signal before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 18?
30°C 33%
31°C 27%
29°C 24%
32°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
5%
28°C
7%
29°C
24%
30°C
33%
31°C
27%
32°C
9%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 33%
31°C 27%
29°C 24%
32°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
$234 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$10 Vol.
2%
26°C
$133 Vol.
2%
27°C
$94 Vol.
5%
28°C
$45 Vol.
7%
29°C
$32 Vol.
24%
30°C
$357 Vol.
33%
31°C
$211 Vol.
27%
32°C
$74 Vol.
9%
33°C
$66 Vol.
3%
34°C or higher
$53 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models place Istanbul's August 18 maximum near 29–31 °C, consistent with the closely bunched Polymarket outcomes (30 °C at 32.5 %, 31 °C at 27.5 %, 29 °C at 24 %). Mid-August subtropical high pressure and peak solar insolation favor these readings, while the moderating influence of the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea breezes plus potential light northerly flow introduce day-to-day variability of 1–2 °C. Ensemble spread in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs remains modest, reflecting typical uncertainty in afternoon boundary-layer mixing and any thin high cloud. Updated model guidance and official 48-hour forecasts will provide the next clear signal before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,309End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models place Istanbul's August 18 maximum near 29–31 °C, consistent with the closely bunched Polymarket outcomes (30 °C at 32.5 %, 31 °C at 27.5 %, 29 °C at 24 %). Mid-August subtropical high pressure and peak solar insolation favor these readings, while the moderating influence of the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea breezes plus potential light northerly flow introduce day-to-day variability of 1–2 °C. Ensemble spread in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs remains modest, reflecting typical uncertainty in afternoon boundary-layer mixing and any thin high cloud. Updated model guidance and official 48-hour forecasts will provide the next clear signal before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,309End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models place Istanbul's August 18 maximum near 29–31 °C, consistent with the closely bunched Polymarket outcomes (30 °C at 32.5 %, 31 °C at 27.5 %, 29 °C at 24 %). Mid-August subtropical high pressure and peak solar insolation favor these readings, while the moderating influence of the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea breezes plus potential light northerly flow introduce day-to-day variability of 1–2 °C. Ensemble spread in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs remains modest, reflecting typical uncertainty in afternoon boundary-layer mixing and any thin high cloud. Updated model guidance and official 48-hour forecasts will provide the next clear signal before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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