Latest MetService and international model guidance for Wellington on August 17 show maximum temperatures clustering around 9–10 °C, supporting the near-even market split between those two outcomes. A cool southerly airstream, limited cloud cover, and modest daytime insolation are the main controls, with ensemble spreads reflecting typical winter variability in the region’s maritime climate. Minor shifts in wind speed or timing of any frontal passage could easily tip the daily high between the two values, while probabilities for 8 °C or 11 °C remain low absent stronger model consensus. Updated forecast runs tomorrow morning will provide the final data ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 17?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 17?
10°C 49%
9°C 42%
8°C 4%
11°C 3%
NEW
$21,218 Vol.
NEW
$21,218 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
4%
9°C
42%
10°C
49%
11°C
3%
12°C
2%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 49%
9°C 42%
8°C 4%
11°C 3%
NEW
$21,218 Vol.
NEW
$21,218 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
4°C or below
$110 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$106 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$1,506 Vol.
1%
7°C
$3,258 Vol.
2%
8°C
$4,204 Vol.
4%
9°C
$3,633 Vol.
42%
10°C
$3,243 Vol.
49%
11°C
$1,495 Vol.
3%
12°C
$1,467 Vol.
2%
13°C
$1,915 Vol.
<1%
14°C or higher
$309 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest MetService and international model guidance for Wellington on August 17 show maximum temperatures clustering around 9–10 °C, supporting the near-even market split between those two outcomes. A cool southerly airstream, limited cloud cover, and modest daytime insolation are the main controls, with ensemble spreads reflecting typical winter variability in the region’s maritime climate. Minor shifts in wind speed or timing of any frontal passage could easily tip the daily high between the two values, while probabilities for 8 °C or 11 °C remain low absent stronger model consensus. Updated forecast runs tomorrow morning will provide the final data ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Volume
$21,218End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest MetService and international model guidance for Wellington on August 17 show maximum temperatures clustering around 9–10 °C, supporting the near-even market split between those two outcomes. A cool southerly airstream, limited cloud cover, and modest daytime insolation are the main controls, with ensemble spreads reflecting typical winter variability in the region’s maritime climate. Minor shifts in wind speed or timing of any frontal passage could easily tip the daily high between the two values, while probabilities for 8 °C or 11 °C remain low absent stronger model consensus. Updated forecast runs tomorrow morning will provide the final data ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,218End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest MetService and international model guidance for Wellington on August 17 show maximum temperatures clustering around 9–10 °C, supporting the near-even market split between those two outcomes. A cool southerly airstream, limited cloud cover, and modest daytime insolation are the main controls, with ensemble spreads reflecting typical winter variability in the region’s maritime climate. Minor shifts in wind speed or timing of any frontal passage could easily tip the daily high between the two values, while probabilities for 8 °C or 11 °C remain low absent stronger model consensus. Updated forecast runs tomorrow morning will provide the final data ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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