Recent forecasts from MetService, the UK Met Office, and other models indicate a daytime high of 10–12°C for Wellington on August 18, with 11°C as the most probable outcome under the influence of a lingering cold southerly flow and polar air mass. This aligns with August climatology, where average maximums reach about 12°C amid frequent southerly winds that suppress temperatures below summer baselines. The market's heavy weighting toward 11°C and 12°C reflects consensus model runs showing limited warming potential from cloud cover and showers, while lower probabilities for 13°C or higher stem from the absence of northerly shifts in current guidance. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these implied odds as steering patterns and sea-surface influences evolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 18?
11°C 54%
12°C 34%
10°C 9%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
9%
11°C
54%
12°C
34%
13°C
7%
14°C
2%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
11°C 54%
12°C 34%
10°C 9%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
6°C or below
$247 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$247 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$67 Vol.
1%
9°C
$103 Vol.
3%
10°C
$188 Vol.
9%
11°C
$1,346 Vol.
54%
12°C
$2,071 Vol.
34%
13°C
$206 Vol.
7%
14°C
$150 Vol.
2%
15°C
$171 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$171 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService, the UK Met Office, and other models indicate a daytime high of 10–12°C for Wellington on August 18, with 11°C as the most probable outcome under the influence of a lingering cold southerly flow and polar air mass. This aligns with August climatology, where average maximums reach about 12°C amid frequent southerly winds that suppress temperatures below summer baselines. The market's heavy weighting toward 11°C and 12°C reflects consensus model runs showing limited warming potential from cloud cover and showers, while lower probabilities for 13°C or higher stem from the absence of northerly shifts in current guidance. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these implied odds as steering patterns and sea-surface influences evolve.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,968End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService, the UK Met Office, and other models indicate a daytime high of 10–12°C for Wellington on August 18, with 11°C as the most probable outcome under the influence of a lingering cold southerly flow and polar air mass. This aligns with August climatology, where average maximums reach about 12°C amid frequent southerly winds that suppress temperatures below summer baselines. The market's heavy weighting toward 11°C and 12°C reflects consensus model runs showing limited warming potential from cloud cover and showers, while lower probabilities for 13°C or higher stem from the absence of northerly shifts in current guidance. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these implied odds as steering patterns and sea-surface influences evolve.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,968End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from MetService, the UK Met Office, and other models indicate a daytime high of 10–12°C for Wellington on August 18, with 11°C as the most probable outcome under the influence of a lingering cold southerly flow and polar air mass. This aligns with August climatology, where average maximums reach about 12°C amid frequent southerly winds that suppress temperatures below summer baselines. The market's heavy weighting toward 11°C and 12°C reflects consensus model runs showing limited warming potential from cloud cover and showers, while lower probabilities for 13°C or higher stem from the absence of northerly shifts in current guidance. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these implied odds as steering patterns and sea-surface influences evolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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